I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915


I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

21 Aug 2020
The analysts Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 90% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested, with the Conilon harvest now completed. This based on the Safras & Mercado forecast for a new crop of 68 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 61 million bags of the new crop have been harvested. The Conilon robusta areas completed, which Safras estimate to have come in at 20 million bags and the arabica areas still in harvest, with an estimated 41 million bags completed.

The November to December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 56.13 usc/Lb. This equates to 47.19% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 748 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 1,353,450 bags, with 93.7% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,267,696 bags and the remaining 6.3% being held in the USA at a total of 85,754 bags. There is meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 26,048 bags.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange are seen to be sharply down from the same period last year when stocks were registered at 2.3 million bags.

It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The London Robusta Coffee market ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Cocoa and New York Arabica Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note, while the Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.6385% lower; to see this index registered at 405.2173. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.325 to Sterling, at 1.188 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.559 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on a positive note, both markets continued this firmer track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon both the London and the New York markets it a ceiling to limit the gains for the day and subsequently started to attract a large degree of selling pressure to see the markets set on a very soft track, Both the London and the New York markets bounced off the lows of the day to see the London market settle on a near to unchanged note for the day and the New York market settle on a modest soft note for the day.

The London market ended the day on a modest close to par positive note and with 4% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note and with 28.57% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close does little to indicate direction, with first notice day today 21st August and the Brazil Real tending softer against the US Dollar once again, one might think the markets are due for little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                           NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

SEP 1457 + 6                                                                         SEP 118.55 + 0.10
NOV 1385 + 1                                                                       DEC 118.95 – 0.40
JAN 1393 + 2                                                                         MAR 120.80 – 0.45
MAR 1404 + 1                                                                       MAY 121.65 – 0.50
MAY 1417 + 1                                                                       JUL 122.40 – 0.55
JUL 1430 Unch                                                                     SEP 123.00 – 0.65
SEP 1443 Unch                                                                     DEC 123.80 – 0.70
NOV 1457 Unch                                                                   MAR 124.70 – 0.75