The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of March were 2.70% lower than the same month last year, to total 3.06 million bags, this number made up of 2.71 million bags of arabica coffee down 6.30% from the same month last year and 351,735 bags of Conilon robusta coffee up 38% from the same month last year.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have since reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first nine months of the July 2020 to June 2021 Brazil coffee year, to be 34.43% higher, overall, at the end of March than the same period in the previous coffee year at a total of 31.41 million bags. This large increase in reported exports for the first nine months of the current July 2020 to June 2021 coffee year can be attributed to the biennially bearing larger, record production harvested in the 2020/21 coffee year.

The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of March are up by 38.10% from the previous month, to total 2,827,067 bags. This number proving to be higher than the 2.42 million bags that had been initially forecast for the month’s coffee exports. The report also states that for the first three months of the 2021 calendar year, Vietnam coffee exports are 12.20% lower than the same period last year at a total of 7,600,167 bags. The report also indicates that the coffee export revenue for the first three months of 2021 calendar year is 7% lower than the same period last year at a total of around 809 million US Dollars.

A leading coffee association in Mexico, AMECAFE, has forecast that coffee production for the primarily washed arabica coffee producer during the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year will be 4.76% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4 million bags. The report from AMECAFE, likewise forecasts that coffee exports for this coffee producer country, which has a domestic consumption and value add for export market of an estimated 1.2 million bags per annum, has registered exports during the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year at 6.67% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year at a total of 2.8 million bags.

The July-to-July contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday: to register this at 68.08 usc/Lb. This equates to 52.36% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,861,134 bags, with 95.1% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,769,296 bags and the remaining 4.9% being held in the USA at a total 91,838 bags. Meanwhile 6,720 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 49,595 bags.

It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways for the day. The Coffee and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, Sugar, Gold, Silver and Platinum market ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.373 Sterling, at 1.189 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.733 Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest softer note, both markets gained momentum early in the day to see the London market hit a ceiling limiting the gains for the day. As the afternoon progressed the both the New York and the London markets dropped back from the morning highs before attracting a degree of buying support to see the markets set on a firmer path for the afternoon session. The New York and London markets would hit a ceiling late in the day, to drop back and settle on a modest positive note for the day.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 10.53% of the gains the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on likewise modest positive note and with 44.74% of the gains of the day intact. This modest positive close with both the New York and the London markets settling near to the par for the day might inspire some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT.             NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

JUL 1365 + 2                                           JUL 130.00 + 0.85
SEP 1382 + 2                                           SEP 131.80 + 0.80
NOV 1398 + 2                                         DEC 134.15 + 0.75
JAN 1413 + 2                                          MAR 136.05 + 0.70
MAR 1429 + 2                                        MAY 136.95 + 0.65
MAY 1445 + 1                                         JUL 137.40 + 0.65
JUL 1461 Unch                                       SEP 137.70 + 0.65
SEP 1478 – 1                                           DEC 138.15 + 0.60