The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of May have registered 1.40% lower from the previous month, at 2,171,417 bags. This number is proving to be marginally lower than the 2.25 million bags that had been initially forecast for the month’s coffee exports.

This sees the cumulative export performance from Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta coffee at 12% lower than the same period last year at a total 11,921,050 bags in the first five months of the 2021 calendar year. The report also indicates that the coffee export revenue for the first five months of 2021 calendar year is 5.3% lower than the same period last year at a total of around 1.3 billion US Dollars.

The U.S. Governments National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre have reported that there is currently no active La Niña or El Niño weather conditions and that there remains a 78% chance of ENSO neutral weather conditions which are likely to continue through the third quarter of this year.

Meanwhile it has been mostly dry over the main coffee districts in Brazil so far this month, which one would consider to be normal for this seasonal time of year. There are forecasts for light rain due over the coming days, although these should not disrupt the harvest which is currently underway. In this respect, local analysts Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 27% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested.

Based on the Safras & Mercado forecast for a new crop of 56.50 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 16 million bags of the new crop have been harvested. The coffee made up of around 10 million bags of conilon robusta coffee, which begin harvest earlier in the seasonal year, and approximately 6 million bags of arabica coffee harvested thus far.

The July-to-July contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday; to register this at 86.81 usc/Lb. This equates to 54.70% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage will likely be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 8,553 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 2,124,530 bags, with 93.39% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,984,069 bags and the remaining 6.61% being held in the USA at a total 140,461 bags. Of this, a total 1,143,402 bags, or 53.82% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 38.01% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile a smaller in number 7,797 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 92,657 bags.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday as the newly released U.S consumer price data showed positive signs of the continued economic recovery. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Wheat, Soybean, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.418 Sterling, at 1.219 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.056 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest softer note, the markets fortunes were quickly reversed to see both markets trend marginally firmer for the early morning session, the markets would continue to trade around par, oscillating either side for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York and London markets gained momentum which saw the markets buoyed by buying support. The New York market continued to trend firmer before hitting a ceiling late in the day, this saw the market drop back marginally to settle on a firmer note at the close, while the London market followed suit albeit in a more sedate manner to settle near to unchanged on the day.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 25% of the gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note and with 71.43% of the gains of the day intact. This firmer close, might inspire some degree of direction to possibly set the markets for a hesitant follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                             NEW YORK USC/LB.

JUL 1585 + 3                                                         JUL 158.70 + 1.50
SEP 1611 + 3                                                         SEP 160.80 + 1.50
NOV 1630 + 3                                                       DEC 163.75 + 1.55
JAN 1645 + 2                                                        MAR 166.35 + 1.60
MAR 1657 + 2                                                      MAY 167.60 + 1.55
MAY 1671 + 2                                                      JUL 168.50 + 1.55
JUL 1688 + 2                                                        SEP 169.05 + 1.55
SEP 1704 + 2                                                        DEC 169.65 + 1.55