The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported preliminary data shows that the country’s coffee exports for the month of November were 173% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 151,512 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for first two months of the October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to be 205% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 231,940 bags. This large increase likely to be reflected by the past year's lockdown affected export figures reported at the same time last year.

The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported preliminary data shows that during the current October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year, the country is expected to export 5.7 million bags, or 2% less than the previous coffee year. IHCAFE have likewise reported that Honduras exported 5,877,542 bags during the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year.

The Brazil government have reported that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of November were 1,678,950 bags or 36.52% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2,918,400 bags. This figure is reported versus the Brazil bumper crop that is estimated to have come in at a record 72 million bags in the July 2020 to June 2021 coffee year. The current export figures from Brazil are influenced by Covid related logistical restraints, though more so that this is a lower biennial bearing crop cycle and thus, when comparing the export performance from Brazil against the last, similar lower Brazil export year in 2019, the export performance is 11.39% lower against the same month in November 2019.

The January 2022 to March 2022 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 128.29 usc/Lb. This equates to 55.01% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage will likely be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 12,427 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,587,222 bags, with 95.53% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,516,322 bags and the remaining 4.47% being held in the USA at a total 70,900 bags. Of this, a total 756,567 bags, or 47.67% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 45.81% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile 11,868 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 85,526 bags pending grading on the day.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, the US Dollar lost ground against a basket of other currencies yesterday. A weaker US Dollar is seen to be a bullish factor for many of the US Dollar based commodity markets when trading in other currencies. The Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while Silver market ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.329 Sterling, at 1.132 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.696 Brazil Real.

The New York market and London markets started the day yesterday trading near to par on a modest firmer note. Both markets were seen to gain momentum and trend firmer throughout the morning session. During the early afternoon session, the New York market was seen to hit a ceiling limiting the gains for the day, while the London market buoyed by buying support continued on a firmer path. The New York market attracted a degree of selling pressure late in the day to see the market drop back and settle on a modest firmer note at the close, while the London market settled near to the highs of the day on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 93.10% of the gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note and with 15.83% of the gains of the day intact. This firmer close might inspire some degree of follow through confidence, albeit that the New York market dropped back from the highs of the day, one might think that the markets are due for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:


LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                             NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN 2314 + 54                                                          MAR 233.25 + 0.95
MAR 2253 + 53                                                        MAY 232.55 + 0.90
MAY 2231 + 57                                                        JUL 231.80 + 0.85
JUL 2230 + 57                                                          SEP 230.95 + 0.70
SEP 2227 + 55                                                           DEC 230.75 + 0.50
NOV 2230 + 54                                                        MAR 230.65 + 0.40
JAN 2238 + 56                                                         MAY 230.50 + 0.35
MAR 2240 + 56                                                       JUL 230.45 + 0.35