With the month of April almost complete and with the shipment statistics already at hand, the Vietnam General Statistics office have estimated that the coffee exports for the month of April shall be 28.60% higher than the same month last year, at a total of approximately 2,833,333 bags. This they say, shall result in the countries coffee exports for the first seven months of the current October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to be 5.25% higher than the same period last year, at a total of 14,960,410 bags.

The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time estimated that the value of the country’s coffee exports for the first four months of this calendar year, shall be 59.40% higher than the same period last year, at a total of approximately 1.68 billion US Dollars. This factor well illustrating the increased value of the coffee terminal markets from the same period in the previous year.

The weather conditions within Brazil meanwhile have seen the rains abate over the past week with dry conditions expected to continue for the coming days. This follows higher than normal rainfall levels for the first two months of the year, as Brazil head towards traditionally drier winter months ahead. Internal market trade in Brazil has been reported to be relatively lacklustre in recent days, even with the strengthening of the US Dollar against the Brazil Real, there remains a reticence on the part of producers to participate fully in forward sales, due to the prevailing volatility within the New York Coffee futures market.

The July 2022 to July 2022 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 122.84 usc/Lb. This equates to 56.45% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage will likely be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,490 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,124,672 bags, with 95.54% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,074,563 bags and the remaining 4.46% being held in the USA at a total 50,109. Of this, a total 570,354 bags, or 50.71% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 40.92% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile a 975 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 13,621 bags pending grading on the day.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with widespread gains capped by a strengthening US Dollar and all indications pointing towards an imminent interest rate hike in the USA. The Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee, Corn, Gold, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Soybean, Wheat and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.250 Sterling, at 1.052 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.939 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on a firmer note, the markets would continue to oscillate around par for the remainder of the early morning session. A firmer trend built as activity increased in New York. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York higher, triggering further buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day. This assisted to trigger speculative short covering which saw the New York market gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session. The late afternoon session saw the London market follow suit, albeit in a more sedate manner. The New York market continued on its upward momentum path before being capped briefly very late in the day. This saw the New York market settle near to the highs of the day on a firm note, while the London market followed to also settle on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 93.44% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 78.85% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close, with the markets continuing on a to make gains throughout the day and to settle near to the highs of the day, is likely to provide some degree of direction and momentum and one might think that the markets might be pressured for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                NEW YORK USC/LB.

JUL 2089 + 57                                           JUL 217.60 + 2.05
SEP 2094 + 53                                           SEP 217.40 + 1.90
NOV 2095 + 51                                         DEC 216.70 + 1.65
JAN 2089 + 49                                          MAR 215.60 + 1.50
MAR 2085 + 49                                        MAY 214.35 + 1.35
MAY 2083 + 51                                        JUL 212.40 + 1.25
JUL 2082 + 51                                          SEP 209.85 + 1.30
SEP 2079 + 52                                          DEC 207.30 + 1.40