The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported preliminary data that the country’s coffee exports for the month of February were 159,803 bags or 31.80% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 662,324 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for first five months of the October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year to be 213,343 bags or 15.62% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,579,759 bags. The increase in exports from this largest Central American washed Arabica producing nation may be attributed to some extent to the easing of logistical congestion, which impacted export statistics through the same period last year. The October 2022 to September 2023 crop year forecast to be 14.58% improved on the comparatively low, October 2021 to September 2022 production, to reach a total production of 5.50 million bags in the current export year.

The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (ICAFE) have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of February were 18.50% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 85,665 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the first five months of the current October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year to be 3.10% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 233,356 bags. The prevailing forecasts for this crop is to potentially reach 1.45 million bags, 11.50% above the October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year.

The Brazil government have reported preliminary data that illustrates the country’s green coffee exports for the month of February were 41.23% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2.04 million bags. The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for February will soon be released and can be anticipated to illustrate this figure more accurately. This lower export figure for the month of February, was somewhat expected as the internal Brazilian market remains relatively muted. Producers continue to be reticent sellers, holding onto remaining stocks from the lower production year that is reported to have come in at a median average of 63 million bags arabica coffee. Thus, current crop coffees are slow to be released to the market, with a resistance on the part of buyers to participate in prompt business.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 320 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 787,025 bags, with 95.10% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 748,429 bags and the remaining 4.90% being held in the USA at a total 38,596. Of this, a total 389,272 bags, or 49.46% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 47.25% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 54,929 bags pending grading on the day.

The May 2023 to May 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 84.80 usc/Lb. This equates to 46.20% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage may be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for Robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.

It was a firmer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, with the US Dollar losing ground against a basket of other currencies, following economic data out of China and the prospects of increased demand to come from this economy. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.200 Sterling, at 1.065 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.179 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on a modest softer note, both markets quickly attracted selling pressure to see the market trend softer early during the morning session. The New York and London markets continued to trade in negative territory for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed the London market gained support to rebound from the earlier lows of the day and recover all of the losses from the morning session. The New York market likewise found support near to the lows of the day to recover some of the earlier losses of the day, settled in negative territory on the day at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 74% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note with 45.45% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets does little to indicate direction, albeit that the New York market recovered most of the earlier losses of the day, one might think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT              NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAY   2177 + 37                                         MAY  183.55 – 2.75
JUL     2161 + 32                                        JUL     182.15 – 2.75
SEP     2141 + 32                                        SEP     180.15 – 2.65
NOV   2106 + 29                                        DEC    178.15 – 2.60
JAN    2087 + 28                                        MAR   177.75 – 2.60
MAR  2081 + 28                                        MAY   178.25 – 2.60
MAY  2081 + 28                                        JUL     178.45 – 2.55
JUL    2087 + 28                                        SEP     178.60 – 2.60