The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of April were 13.80% lower than the same month last year, to total 2.39 million bags, this number made up of 2.27 million bags of arabica coffee down 13.81% from the same month last year and 123,356 bags of Conilon robusta coffee down 13.63% from the same month last year.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have also reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first ten months of the current July 2022 to June 2023 Brazil coffee year, to be 6.86% lower, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 27.27 million bags.

There are two months remaining in the current July 2022 to June 2023 Brazil coffee year, noting that there remains potential for Brazil coffee exports to reach a level of around 33 million bags for the full coffee year, should this country’s export performance in the months of May and June, come in at around the historical averages for these months. This would indicate an anticipated total export figure for the Brazil 2022/23 coffee year to potentially be around 7% lower than the previous 2021/22 coffee year.

The coming Brazil July 2023 to June 2024 coffee crop has meanwhile been estimated by several independent forecasters ahead of harvest to be at a median of 63 million bags, on par with the current 2022/23 coffee year. This to be made up of an estimated 40 million bags arabica coffee and 23 million bags Conilon robusta coffee. The new crop that has begun harvest in the robusta areas and due to start in arabica areas soon, will fuel domestic consumption of around 21.50 million bags and consumer country demand exports, that is put at an average of 36 million bags. The climatic conditions leading up to this harvest, and to set the conditions for the next 2024/25 crop due to begin flowering toward the latter end of this year, have thus far been optimal in most areas, while there is still some time ahead the 2024/25 Brazil coffee crop is anticipated to be a biennial bearing upcycle year.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,140 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 649,830 bags, with 97.02% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 630,465 bags and the remaining 2.98% being held in the USA at a total 19,365. Of this, a total 255,652 bags, or 39.34% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 56.90% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile a no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The July 2023 to July 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 73.41 usc/Lb. This equates to 39.48% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage may be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for Robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, with key US CPI data for the month of April showing performance in line with expectations. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Corn, Platinum and Palladium market ended the day on a positive note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Soybean, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.262 Sterling, at 1.097 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.944 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on a modest firmer note respectively. The New York market continued to oscillate to either side of par as the morning progressed, while the London market found support to trend firmer and make gains during the mid-morning session. As the afternoon progressed the London market continued to trend firmer, accentuating the gains for the day, while the New York market was seen to drop back from the modest highs of the morning session and trend in a softer direction. The late afternoon session saw both the New York and the London markets continue to be pushed lower, pressured by selling in the market. The New York market recovered late in the day to see the market settle on a modest softer note at the close, while the London market recovered all of the losses to settle on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 72.72% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged negative note with 28.21% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, albeit that the New York market recovered most of the earlier losses of the day to settle on a modest note, does little to inspire confidence and one might think that the markets are due for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT              NEW YORK USC/LB.

JUL      2481 + 16                                     JUL      185.95 – 0.55
SEP      2460 + 17                                     SEP      183.70 – 0.50
NOV    2423 + 16                                     DEC     181.70 – 0.65
JAN     2396 + 16                                     MAR    181.50 – 0.75
MAR   2375 + 16                                     MAY    181.85 – 0.80
MAY   2356 + 16                                     JUL       182.25 – 0.90
JUL     2340 + 16                                     SEP      182.85 – 0.90
SEP     2330 + 16                                     DEC     183.10 – 0.90