With the Brazil July 2023 to June 2024 coffee crop harvest reported to be mostly complete, the median estimate that the earlier harvested robusta Conilon crop, is for a steady year on year 22 million bags production. The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé reported that the cumulative exports of Brazil Conilon robusta coffees for the full July 2022 to June 2023 coffee year were 1.61 million bags, remaining steady year on year. One might comment however that this current year is another larger crop year for Brazil Conilion producers and reasonable to anticipate that there may be an uptick in Conilon robusta coffee exports to consumer markets, to potentially fill in some of the gap that has been felt by the near-term shortfall of Vietnam robusta coffee. In this regard, cumulative exports for the first two months of the current July 2023 to June 2024 Brazil Conilon crop are reported to be 332.82% higher than the same period in the previous year at a total of 1.19 million bags.

Meanwhile, the new crop within Indonesia, continues to flow to the internal market to fuel the domestic roasting and instant coffee manufacturing demand as well as the export market. The new coffee crop which is around 85% robusta coffee, has been conservatively forecast to potentially reach a median of 10.30 million bags of which approximately 8.80 million bags will be robusta coffee. This estimated level of production for the 2023/24 coffee year is somewhat lower than the average production of 11.80 million bags seen over the past three coffee years.

Within Uganda, the UCDA have reported that the cumulative exports for the first eleven months of the current October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year are 217,433 bags or 4.06% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 5,566,392 bags.

There have been weather reports from Vietnam, that forecast heavy rains due to fall over the Central Highlands in the week to come. This as the world’s largest Robusta coffee producer will soon begin their new October 2023 to September 2024 coffee crop harvest. This forecasted rainfall follows a spout of heavy rain brought about by Tropical Storm Talim which passed through the country during the early stages of August this year. Traditionally one would look to the cessation of the rains in a few weeks’ time, to assist producers to begin their harvest. The relative persistence of the coming rains will be monitored over the coming days, as a prolonged continuation of rainfall may potentially delay the start of the coffee harvest. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 440,853 bags, with 98.33% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 433,495 bags and the remaining 1.67% being held in the USA at a total 7,358 Bags. Of this, a total 129,602 bags, or 29.39% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 65.32% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The November 2023 to December 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 43.08 usc/Lb. This equates to 27.82% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a lower day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets lower on the day. The Cocoa and Sugar markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.228 Sterling, at 1.065 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.936 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on very modest firmer notes respectively, the markets were continued to trade in modest firmer territory for the remainder of the early morning session before encountering resistance to see the markets pressured lower during the late morning session. As the afternoon progressed, speculative selling returned to the New York floor to trigger stops along the way. The London followed suit and the markets continued to project lower with long liquidation pressure to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, to see the New York market narrowly recover some of the earlier losses of the day, while the London market was seen to also settle near to the lows of the day, on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 83.02% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 90.54% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through softer close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV   2464 – 44                                          DEC    154.85 – 3.35
JAN    2378 – 36                                          MAR   156.05 – 3.20
MAR  2327 – 36                                          MAY   157.05 – 3.05
MAY  2302 – 35                                          JUL     158.00 – 2.85
JUL    2289 – 35                                          SEP     158.45 – 2.75
SEP    2278 – 35                                          DEC    159.45 – 2.80
NOV  2270 – 35                                          MAR   160.80 – 2.85
JAN   2263 – 35                                          MAY   162.10 – 2.85