The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector switch their net short position within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 31st. October 2023: to register a new long position of 2,327 lots, which is the equivalent of 659,694 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased further following the period of overall firmer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 12.29% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 31st. October 2023: to register a new net long position of 22,607 Lots which is the equivalent of 3,767,833 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of September were 13.36% lower than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 8.61 million bags. This they say, has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year to be 5.60% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 122.99 million bags.

The International Coffee Organisation ICO have maintained their forecast for global coffee supply at 1.70% higher than the previous year at a total of 171.27 million bags for the October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise maintained their forecast for global consumption for the October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year, to grow by 1.66% from the previous year to reach a total of 178.53 million bags. Therefore, the global coffee markets are indicated to have a coffee year deficit of 7.26 million bags heading into the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year. These figures exclude carryover stocks in producer and consumer countries and with this 2022/2023 coffee year now complete, the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year has begun and harvests in primary coffee producer and exporting countries are underway, to include the largest robusta producer, Vietnam, as well as combined quality washed arabica coffee producer bloc Colombia, Central America, Mexico and Peru.  This, while the markets continue to focus their attentions to the development of the Brazil crop to supply 2024/2025 coffee potential for production and consumption demand forecasts, to come.

The ICO reported a decrease in exports from South America during September, which registered a 3.40% decrease in exports when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 4.74 million bags during September from Brazil and Colombia. There was a comparative decrease in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered a 35.70% decrease in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 1.91 million bags during September. Within the ICO report, exports for September were seen to have decreased by 1.90% year on year from Africa to a total 1.21 million bags.

The ICO report includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for September that exports were 9.20% lower than the same period in the previous year to total 810,000 bags.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 8,091 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 360,009 bags, with 98.63% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 355,081 bags and the remaining 1.37% being held in the USA at a total 4,928 Bags. Of this, a total 84,514 bags, or 23.48% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 70.21% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The December 2023 to January 2024 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets widened on Friday to register this at 63.31 Usc/Lb. This equates to 37.05% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets on Friday, with the US Dollar index falling over 1% against a basket of other currencies. A weaker US Dollar is seen to be a bullish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Coffee, Corn, Sugar, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on firmer note, while the Cocoa market ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.237 Sterling, at 1.074 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.901 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading north of par on a modest firmer notes respectively. This early support continued throughout the early morning session with the markets moving above par, albeit that this support was short lived, as the markets quickly begun to oscillate around par for the remainder of the morning session. The New York market rebounded off the lows of the early morning session, to gain support and trend firmer. This saw the market track upward as speculative buying support returned to the floor. As the afternoon progressed, the New York and London markets continued to gain momentum to rally late in the day around the opening of business day in the Americas’, good volumes of trade, both markets continued to move in a firmer direction accentuating the gains for the day. The upward momentum brought sellers back to the floor at the top of the day, and both New York and London markets hit a ceiling very late in the day to limit the sessions gains. The New York market settled near to the highs of the day on a very firm note, while the London market followed suit to likewise settle on a very firm note, near to the highs of the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 95.65% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 92.50% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This very firm close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets tracking upward throughout the session to settle near to the highs, in what was a good volume session, might possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN    2372 + 44                                          DEC    170.90 + 5.55
MAR  2323 + 38                                          MAR   169.15 + 5.30
MAY  2301 + 38                                          MAY    169.60 + 5.35
JUL    2281 + 37                                         JUL       170.50 + 5.30
SEP    2269 + 33                                         SEP       171.30 + 5.30
NOV  2260 + 33                                         DEC     172.40 + 5.35
JAN   2249 + 33                                         MAR    174.05 + 5.40
MAR 2242 + 33                                         MAY    175.00 + 5.40