The respected United States Department of Agriculture USDA Global Agricultural Information Network have revised their estimate for the October 2023 to September 2024 Indian coffee crop production, higher by 2.41% at a total 5,950,000 bags, due to conducive weather conditions through crop development, resulting in higher yields. This revised figure is made up from the production of 1,420,000 bags of arabica coffee, down 14.82% from the previous coffee year and 4,530,000 bags of robusta coffee, up 7.86% from the previous coffee year. The report further anticipates green coffee exports from this primarily Robusta producing country to reach 4,250,000 bags in the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, this figure 6.25% higher than the previous 22/23 coffee year.

The USDA further estimates yield October 2023 to September 2024 yields for Arabica coffee at an average of 416 kilograms per hectare and Robusta coffee at an average of 1,187 kilograms, per hectare which is an improvement on the previous year. The USDA estimates the October 2023 to September 2024 Indian domestic coffee consumption to grow by 2.42% to 1,270,000 bags when compared to the previous year. This is largely driven by sales of soluble coffee for at home consumption through e-commerce and retail channels. As well as a rise in at home consumption that will be supported by the functioning of the hospitality HORECA hotels, restaurants, catering and institutional sectors.

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the USA, which shall see the New York market closed for the day, leaving the London market trading solo.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,035 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 290,734 bags, with 98.30% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 285,806 bags and the remaining 1.70% being held in the USA at a total 4,928 Bags. Of this, a total 56,799 bags, or 19.54% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 72.65% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was a 14,765 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The January 2024 to March 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 55.97 Usc/Lb. This equates to 33.21% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, the leading in directional influence and volume, energy markets buoyant and the US Dollar tracking lower against a basket of other currencies, on the day. The Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on firmer note, while the Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.253 Sterling, at 1.091 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.901 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day yesterday trading on a softer note, while the London market started the day trading on a firmer note, both markets continued to oscillate to either side of par for the remainder of the early morning session before attracting some degree of selling pressure to see the markets trend below par during the later morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the New York and London markets continued to trend in a softer direction, weighed by selling in the markets. The markets hit a floor during the mid-afternoon session, to rebound from the lows of the day. The selling pressure started to wane towards the end of the day’s trade, with the additional pressure for the commercial sector to square positions ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday tomorrow in New York, and First Notice Day in New York hurdled, to see the New York market recover some of the earlier losses, the London market followed suit, albeit in a more sedate manner.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 47.92% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 66.67% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets does little to indicate direction, albeit that the New York market recovered most of the earlier losses to settle on modest softer note, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA tomorrow, against the prices set yesterday, as follows, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN    2482 – 23                                          MAR   168.55 – 2.60
MAR  2421 – 16                                          MAY    167.70 – 2.70
MAY  2396 – 18                                          JUL      168.55 – 2.65
JUL    2367 – 18                                          SEP      169.65 – 2.55
SEP    2348 – 20                                          DEC     171.20 – 2.60
NOV  2338 – 20                                          MAR    173.10 – 2.65
JAN   2328 – 19                                           MAY    174.05 – 2.60
MAR 2313 – 21                                           JUL      174.90 – 2.55