The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund increase their net long position by 5.35% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 30th. January 2024; to register a new long position at 48,610 Lots. The longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position by 3.52% within the market, to register a new net long position of 53,881 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative increased their net long position by 2.23% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 30th. January 2024: to register a new net long position of 34,110 lots, which is the equivalent of 9,670,034 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally increased following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 14,565 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 281,455 bags, with 98.29% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 276,650 bags and the remaining 1.71% being held in the USA at a total 4,805 Bags. Of this, a total 90,837 bags, or 32.27% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 45.15% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile, no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 65,114 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2024 to March 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 44.89 Usc/Lb. This equates to 23.69% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil market softer on the day. The Soybean and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, the Corn and Palladium market remained unchanged on the day, while the Coffee, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.252 Sterling, at 1.074 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.982 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on modest near to unchanged softer notes respectively. The New York market was pressured lower early in the day, while the London market followed suit to also drop back into softer territory during the early morning session. The late morning session saw the New York market continue to trend in a softer direction. As the afternoon progressed, speculative selling returned to the New York floor to trigger stops along the way. The London followed suit and the markets continued to project lower with long liquidation selling to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, to see the New York and London markets rebound from the lows of the day and recover some of the earlier losses of the day, to see both markets settle on softer notes at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 85.96% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 72.06% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through softer close for the markets does little to inspire confidence, nor does it indicate direction albeit that the New York and London markets recovered some of the earlier losses of the day, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR       3188 – 49                                     MAR      189.50 – 2.45
MAY       3068 – 48                                     MAY      186.70 – 2.30
JUL         2988 – 39                                    JUL         185.80 – 2.30
SEP         2911 – 33                                    SEP         185.80 – 2.30
NOV       2851 – 41                                    DEC        186.30 – 2.20
JAN        2816 – 42                                    MAR       187.10 – 2.05
MAR      2793 – 43                                    MAY       187.35 – 1.95
MAY      2776 – 43                                    JUL         187.45 – 1.90