The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund increase their net long position by 16.68% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 16th April 2024; to register a new long position at 66,885 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position by 3.38% within the market, to register a new net long position of 52,581 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative increase their net long position by 10.05% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 16th April 2024: to register a new net long position of 53,433 lots, which is the equivalent of 15,148,019 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased further following the period of firmer trade that has since followed.

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of March were 158,049 bags or 32.40% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 329,686 bags. Uganda Robusta exports registered a 33.03% decrease when compared to the same month last year, to total 244,975 bags and Arabica exports registered a 30.53% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 84,711 bags exported in March 2024. The UCDA also reports that the cumulative exports for the first six months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 238,869 bags or 8.59% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 2,543,205 bags. The UCDA have reported that during the month of March, the overall value of coffee exports has been seen to have decreased by 9.45% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 64.74 million US Dollars.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to decrease by 3,420 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 639,670 bags, with 99.67% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 637,585 bags and the remaining 0.33% being held in the USA at a total 2,085 Bags. Of this, a total 302,140 bags, or 47.23% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 17.81% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 6,085 bags; to register 55,064 bags pending grading on the day.

The July 2024 to July 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 40.18 Usc/Lb. This equates to 17.65% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of key US economic data due out on Friday this week, for possible cues on the prospect of Interest Rate cuts to come. The London Robusta Coffee, Corn, Sugar, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a positive note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.235 Sterling, at 1.065 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.166 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on firmer notes respectively. The markets both continued to find support during the early morning trade to trend in a firmer direction. This support continued throughout the early morning session to see the New York market set a ceiling for the day’s session, whilst the London market continued to trend in a firmer direction. As the afternoon progressed, both the New York and London markets fell back from the earlier highs to trade towards par. The New York market fell below par, pressured lower by selling in the market, whilst the London market followed suit albeit in a more sedate manner. The New York market continued a softer path for the remainder of the day before finding support near to the lows, late in the day to rebound and settle on a softer note. The London market rebounded from the modest lows to gain momentum towards the close and settle on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the on a positive note with 75.71% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note, with 50.30% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the New York market recovering more than half of the earlier losses of the day and the London market settling near to the highs of the day might see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JUL     4133 + 53                                         JUL    227.65 – 4.20
SEP     4065 + 52                                         SEP    225.75 – 4.40
NOV   3959 + 43                                         DEC   223.95 – 4.35
JAN    3831 + 31                                         MAR  223.25 – 4.25
MAR  3746 + 27                                         MAY  222.20 – 4.20
MAY  3693 + 38                                         JUL    220.95 – 4.10
JUL    3618 + 38                                         SEP    218.85 – 4.10
SEP    3559 + 38                                         DEC   216.65 – 4.00