Over the same week the Non Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 762.15%, to register a short sold position of 11,964 Lots. This net long position which is the equivalent of 3,391,741 bags has most likely been since reduced over the period of mixed but overall more positive trade which has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of this market.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative sector of this market trim their net short sold position within this market by 74.08% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 3rd. May, to register a net short sold position of 1,144 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 190,667 bags has most likely been since liquidated and to perhaps even moved back into a modest net long position, following the period of mixed but mostly positive trade that has since followed.

Meanwhile the physical coffee markets remain dull in nature and with the main stream industry buyers seemingly well covered with forward contract supply commitments to indicate the potential for a slow summer physical trade scenario, while with general producer price resistance still in play and the resulting range of positive export price differentials being demanded from producer exporters, the buying activities of the international trade is slow. This is contributing to the present lacklustre trade that is in play, with the fundamentals of physical coffee supply and demand doing little to buoy sentiment within the terminal markets in New York and London.

The reality in terms of fundamentals behind the coffee market is that focus remains very much on the growing evidence of the significantly larger new Brazil arabica coffee crop, the evidence of still large stocks of unsold Vietnam robusta coffees and the lack of negative impact as of yet of the El Nino dry weather, upon production within Colombia. Thus the three largest coffee producers continue to contribute towards complacency on the part of the consumer industries, but with the new mid-year Mitaca crop in Colombia starting late and still the potential for a noticeable dip in the size of this new crop, one has to take a cautious view towards the medium term prospects for sentiment within the New York arabica coffee market which might still gain some support should Colombian production figures start to slip.

The July on July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 52.29 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 41.35% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, continues to inspire support for the robusta coffee sector of the industry.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,752 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,372,322 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in volume 550 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 5,695 bags.

The commodity markets have gained little support from the news that the U.S.A. posted less than expected employment growth and along with the news of declining import demand from China, which saw renewed muscle for the U.S. dollar and the overall macro commodity index on something of a back foot in trade yesterday. The Sugar, Coffee and New York arabica Coffee markets nevertheless had a positive day’s trade yesterday, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, London robusta Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 1.14% lower; to see this Index registered at 400.51. The day starts with a steady U.S. Dollar which is trading at 1.439 to Sterling and 1.137 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is showing some degree of buoyancy in early trade and is selling at 42.40 per barrel.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday with follow through buoyancy and with both markets taking a positive track into the afternoon trade, but with the London market coming under pressure as the afternoon progressed and falling back into negative territory. This negative stance taken by the London market was initially defied by the New York market but only for a while and the New York market finally came under some pressure to drift back to just below par, but to soon recover to renewed buoyancy and while the London market remained behind in negative territory. The markets continued with their mixed fortunes for the rest of the day’s trade and with the New York market regaining its short term losses, while the London market posted a partial recovery. The London market ended the day on a modestly negative note but having recovered 65% of its earlier losses of the day, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 92.9% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The ability of the New York market to buck the negative commodity trend and with the charts for this market looking modestly positive might assist to inspire some degree of confidence and restraint on the part of producer selling activity and set the markets for a near to steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAY 1606 – 13                                    MAY 125.15 + 1.70
JUL 1635 – 14                                         JUL 126.45 + 1.95
SEP 1650 – 8                                           SEP 128.10 + 1.85
NOV 1663 – 5                                         DEC 130.50 + 1.85
JAN 1674 – 4                                         MAR 133.05 + 1.85
MAR 1683 – 4                                       MAY 134.60 + 1.85
MAY 1694 – 4                                         JUL 135.85 + 1.75
JUL 1705 – 4                                           SEP 136.90 + 1.65
SEP 1719 – 4                                          DEC 138.65 + 1.60
DEC 1738 – 4                                        MAR 140.35 + 1.55