|The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their long position within the market by 68.61% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th. May; to register a net long position of 5,525 Lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 2.9%, to register a net long position of 31,820 Lots on the day.
Over the same week the Non Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their long position within the market by 76.19%, to register net long position of 3,046 Lots. This net long position which is the equivalent of 863,528 bags has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally reduced, over the period of mixed but overall steady trade which has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector within this market.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Non Commercial sector of this market decrease their net long position within this market by 0.05% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th. May; to register a long position of 10,957 Lots. This net long position which is the equivalent of 1,826,167 bags has most likely to have little changed, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.
The Ivory Coast has with the latest April export data in hand reported that the countries robusta coffee exports for the first four months of this year were 53% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 357,650 bags. This is however nevertheless another slow start in export volumes for this year, in terms of the forecasted exports of approximately 1.6 million bags for the year and in this respect, one might expect to see rising volumes of exports in the coming months.
On the weather front the El Nino phenomenon within the Pacific Ocean is passed and the conditions are presently neutral, but with many forecasts now coming to the fore for a follow on new La Nina phenomenon to develop during the last quarter of this year. These forecasts that presently suggest a 75% chance to become reality and despite the high chance and its potential to bring damaging weather conditions for the Pacific Rim coffee producers and even to a lesser degree and further afield to the South East of Brazil and thus the country’s main coffee districts, has yet to impact upon sentiment within the speculative sectors of the coffee markets. Seemingly it shall need to become a reality rather than a possibility, before it actually has some influence upon the presently lacklustre coffee market sentiment.
The September to September contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 47.79 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 38.71% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, continues to inspire support for the robusta coffee sector of the industry.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 41.460 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,312,599 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in volume 10,725 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 23,243 bags.
The commodity markets following the long weekend for the U.S.A. and UK markets that had both markets off the field of play on Monday, came back into play yesterday with mixed fortunes but with the overall macro commodity index nevertheless taking a relatively steady track. The Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Coffee and Orange Juice markets had a day of buoyancy and the Gold market was steady, while the Sugar, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.08% higher; to see this Index registered at 411.41. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar showing a degree of buoyancy and trading at 1.449 to Sterling and 1.112 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is tending softer in early trade and trading at 48.50 per barrel.
The London market and New York markets had a somewhat mixed post long weekend day yesterday with the New York market having a morning and early afternoon of buoyancy, while the London market had a more erratic day and a brief dip into negative territory. The New York market did however come under pressure during later in the day’s trade and shed most of the day’s gains, while the London market shrugged off the selling pressure to end the day with some degree of modest muscle. The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 87.5% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a very modestly positive note and with only 8% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close does little to inspire and with the charts looking somewhat negative for the present, one might expect to see little better than a near to steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 1648 + 8 JUL 121.55 + 0.25