I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915


I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

09 Oct 2019

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 37.55 usc/Lb. This equates to 39.24% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 11,417 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,248,853 bags. There was a smaller in number increase to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 8,068 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 52,566 bags.

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to increase by 6,500 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 7th October, to see these stocks registered at 2,577,500 bags, on the day.

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Cocoa, London Robusta Coffee, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, New York Arabica Coffee, Cotton, Copper and Orange Juice markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.346% higher; to see this index registered at 395.164. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.221 to Sterling, at 1.096 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.095 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, both markets maintained this stance into early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both markets moved to the positive side of par and with the London market maintaining this modest positive stance, while the New York market fell back from the highs of the day to dip deeper into negative territory.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note, and with 23% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note, and with 86.7% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This close for the markets provides little in the way of direction and one might expect to see little better than a hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

NOV 1259 + 6                                                        DEC 95.70 – 1.30
JAN 1282 + 6                                                         MAR 99.35 – 1.30
MAR 1307 + 5                                                       MAY 101.65 – 1.30
MAY 1334 + 5                                                       JUL 103.85 – 1.35
JUL 1361 + 6                                                         SEP 105.85 – 1.35
SEP 1387 + 6                                                         DEC 108.75 – 1.35
NOV 1414 + 7                                                       MAR 111.55 – 1.45
JAN 1441 + 8                                                         MAY 113.30 – 1.45
MAR 1471 + 12                                                     JUL 115.00 – 1.50