I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
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I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

24 Oct 2019
Reuters have reported that the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority forecasts its coffee exports for the October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 16% higher than the previous year, attributed to favourable weather conditions in the long run and expanding acreage of new mature coffee trees.

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 41.46 usc/Lb. This equates to 42.41% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,763 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,262,597 bags, with 87% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,969,143 bags and the remaining 13% being held in the USA at a total of 293,454 bags. There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 3,124 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 27,385 bags.

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to increase by 42,833 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 21st October, to see these stocks registered at 2,657,833 bags, on the day

The commodity markets were firmer in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a positive sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, the Soybean market remained unchanged for the day, while the Sugar, Coffee and Corn markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.476 % higher; to see this index registered at 401.321. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar showing some degree of buoyancy and steady, trading at 1.292 to Sterling, at 1.114 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.034 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, Both the London and the New York markets took a softer stance into the early afternoon trade, trading in modest negative territory. As the afternoon progressed the New York market encountered selling pressure to accentuate the losses for the day, while the London market worked back into positive territory only to fall back into modest negative territory towards the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest negative note, and with 71.4% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, and with 76.7% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This close and with the softer Brazil Real one might expect the markets are due for little better than a hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

NOV 1212 – 5                                                                DEC 97.75 – 1.15
JAN 1241 – 7                                                                 MAR 101.20 – 1.10
MAR 1265 – 7                                                                MAY 103.35 – 1.15
MAY 1289 – 7                                                                JUL 105.40 – 1.05
JUL 1314 – 7                                                                  SEP 107.15 – 1.05
SEP 1341 – 7                                                                  DEC 109.85 – 0.95
NOV 1369 – 7                                                                MAR 112.55 – 0.85
JAN 1497 – 7                                                                 MAY 114.20 – 0.80
MAR 1424 – 7                                                               JUL 115.80 – 0.75