I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
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I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

02 Dec 2019

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of November were 76,262 bags or 28.96% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 263,308 bags. This contributes to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first two months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 225,173 bags or 33.91% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 664,092 bags.

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday; to register this at 55.27 usc/Lb. This equates to 46.43% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 26,572 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,119,863 bags, with 87.6% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,856,333 bags and the remaining 12.4% being held in the USA at a total of 263,530 bags. There was a smaller in number increase to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 2,435 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 47,788 bags.

The commodity markets were mixed in trade on Friday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Coffee, Wheat, Corn, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Copper, Orange Juice and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.5889% lower; to see this index registered at 401.0144. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.292 to Sterling, at 1.102 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.236 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading around par, both markets maintained this modest soft stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed Both the London and New York markets started to attract buying support to move into positive territory for the day, only to hit a ceiling and limit the gains for the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 52.9% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 44.4% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close, and with the Brazil Real marginally weaker once again, does little to inspire confidence and one might expect the markets are due for only a hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

JAN 1385 + 9                                                                MAR 119.05 + 0.60
MAR 1406 + 8                                                              MAY 121.25 + 0.50
MAY 1421 + 9                                                              JUL 123.15 + 0.50
JUL 1438 + 9                                                                SEP 124.80 + 0.50
SEP 1455 + 8                                                                DEC 126.70 + 0.25
NOV 1476 + 7                                                              MAR 128.75 + 0.05
JAN 1497 + 6                                                                MAY 130.25 unch
MAR 1521 + 6                                                              JUL 131.70 – 0.15
MAY 1544 + 6                                                              SEP 133.15 – 0.30