I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915


I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

28 Jan 2020
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net long position within the market by 8.29% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 21st. January; to register a new net long position of 30,374 Lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 4.33%, to register a net long position of 59,196 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 17.95%; to register a new net long position of 13,709 Lots which is the equivalent of 3,886,441 bags. This position has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 46.36 usc/Lb. This equates to 43.49 % price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 4,707 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,160,846 bags, with 89% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,923,871 bags and the remaining 11% being held in the USA at a total of 236,975 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in number decrease by 18,154 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 61,883 bags.

The commodity markets were soft in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft sideways track for the day. The London Robusta Coffee, Cotton and Gold markets ended the day on a positive note, the Cocoa market remained unchanged on the day, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, New York Arabica Coffee, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 1.3361% lower; to see this index registered at 405.0296 The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.306 to Sterling, at 1.102 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.207 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest positive note. The London market maintained this positive track into the early afternoon trade, while the New York market took a softer dropped back into soft territory for the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the London market continued to trade on a modest positive note, while the New York market started to attract selling pressure to move deeper into negative territory and accentuate the losses for the day.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 69.23% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a very negative note and with 88.75% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close does little to indicate direction for the day today, which is likely to see the markets due for a hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAR 1328 + 9                                                                      MAR 106.60 – 3.55
MAY 1339 + 3                                                                      MAY 108.85 – 3.55
JUL 1358 + 3                                                                        JUL 111.15 – 3.50
SEP 1377 + 3                                                                        SEP 113.20 – 3.50
NOV 1395 + 3                                                                      DEC 115.85 – 3.55
JAN 1413 + 4                                                                        MAR 118.45 – 3.60
MAR 1432 + 5                                                                      MAY 119.85 – 3.50
MAY 1455 + 6                                                                      JUL 121.05 – 3.45
JUL 1480 + 8                                                                        SEP 122.15 – 3.45