I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
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I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

16 Mar 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this decrease their net short sold position within the market by 54.9% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th. March; to register a new net short position of 1,773 Lots which is the equivalent of 502,071 bags. This position has most likely been further decreased, following the period of negative trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 7.6% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th. March; to register a short-sold position of 40,164 Lots. This net short sold position is the equivalent of 6,694,000 bags and has most likely been further decreased, following the period of negative trade that has since followed.

The May to May contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday; to register this at 50.45 usc/Lb. This equates to 47.26% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 848 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,098,084 bags, with 89.9% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,886,723 bags and the remaining 10.1% being held in the USA at a total of 211,361 bags. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 6,838 bags.

The commodity markets were softer in trade on Friday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a negative track for the day. The Sugar market ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 2.0796% lower; to see this index registered at 349.7471. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.2331 to Sterling, at 1.1123 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.858 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading close to par on a positive note, both markets continued on this track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market hit a ceiling and started to attract selling pressure to drop back into negative territory for the day. The London market followed suit in a more sedate manner to see the market settle on a modest negative note for the day.

The London market ended the day on a modest negative note and with 47.1% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 82.36% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close does little to inspire confidence and one might think the markets are due little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAY 1241 – 8                                                                           MAY 106.75 – 2.10
JUL 1258 – 9                                                                             JUL 108.45 – 2.00
SEP 1277 – 9                                                                             SEP 110.20 – 1.90
NOV 1296 – 8                                                                           DEC 112.60 – 1.80
JAN 1312 – 8                                                                             MAR 114.60 – 1.80
MAR 1326 – 6                                                                           MAY 115.65 – 1.80
MAY 1340 – 4                                                                           JUL 116.50 – 1.85
JUL 1359 – 3                                                                             SEP 117.35 – 1.85