I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915


I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

19 May 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net long position within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 12th. May; to register a new net long position of 13,159 Lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 4.01%, to register a net long position of 43,224 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net long position within this market by 45.12%, to register a new net long position of 5,283 Lots which is the equivalent of 1,497,707 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that since followed.

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 54.14 usc/Lb. This equates to 50.25% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were increase by 1,935 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,791,476 bags, with 90.8% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,625,933 bags and the remaining 9.2% being held in the USA at a total of 165,543. There was meanwhile a 5,565 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 7,794 bags.

The commodity markets were firmer in trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a firm sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 2.3560% higher; to see this index registered at 353.6665. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.220 to Sterling, at 1.092 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.720 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest soft note, both markets maintained this softer stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market started to gain momentum to trade on a modest positive note for the day, while the London market followed suit to also trade on a modest positive track for the remainder of the day.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 50% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note 72% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This modest positive close does little to indicate direction and one might expect the markets are due little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

JUL    1182 + 4                                                                    JUL    107.75 + 0.90
SEP    1201 + 4                                                                    SEP   109.00 + 1.00
NOV   1219 + 4                                                                   DEC   110.85 + 1.10
JAN    1238 + 4                                                                    MAR  112.65 + 1.10
MAR   1256 + 4                                                                   MAY  113.65 + 1.15
MAY 1273 + 4                                                        JUL 114.65 + 1.15
JUL    1290 + 4                                                                     SEP    115.65 + 1.15
SEP 1307 + 3                                                           DEC 117.00 + 1.15