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Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 44% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 28th June 2026. The harvest this year is at a slower pace, when compared to the same time last year, which was reported at 51%. Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 33.29 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of around 16.81 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, that is anticipated to come in at 25.70 million bags and approximately 16.48 million bags of arabica coffee harvested thus far, of a total estimated by Safras & Mercado to come in at 49.95 million bags.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange continue to register gradual drawdowns over the last number of months. The certified stocks were registered at 380,534 bags yesterday; this marks a decrease of 460,639 bags or 54.76% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 841,173 bags on 30th June 2025. In comparison, these certified washed arabica stocks have decreased by 72,621 bags or 16.03% since the beginning of 2026.

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 20.10% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees. This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 24.30% of the new crop. This means a total of 1.37 million bags of the expected 6.80 million bags to be received by Cooxupe has been harvested so far. Cooxupe expects coffee exports to be 11.48% larger than the previous year, during this current season when compared to the last.

Within the relatively new coffee consumer market space, China, coffee consumption continues to expand rapidly, driven by factors such as urbanisation, growing consumer sophistication, and the expansion of retail, café, and e-commerce channels. Although coffee consumption remains relatively low on a per capita basis, China is one of the fastest-growing coffee markets globally. The USDA forecasts domestic coffee consumption to increase by 6.55% during the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, reaching 5.85 million bags. As both a coffee-producing and consuming country, China sources the majority of its coffee domestically, with less than 40% of total consumption supplied by imported green coffee. Consumer demand is increasingly segmented, ranging from premium specialty and single-origin coffees consumed in specialty cafés to affordable instant and ready-to-drink convenience coffee products. Major urban centres such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou are leading consumption growth, with Shanghai alone having more than 9,100 coffee shops in 2025. Large domestic chains continue to drive market scale, with Luckin Coffee expanding to more than 30,000 stores nationwide and Cotti Coffee, launched in 2022, growing rapidly to over 16,500 outlets.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange registered a decrease by 1,516 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 397,242 bags, with 72.43% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 287,707 and the remaining 27.57% being held in the USA at a total 109,535 bags. Of this, a total 10,740 or 2.70% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.11% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 115,646 bags and 15.46% from Peru at a total 61,407 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 1,375 bags pending grading, with 100% from Honduras.

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 12% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees. This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 13.70% of the new crop. This means a total of 816,000 bags of the expected 6.80 million bags to be received by Cooxupe has been harvested so far. Cooxupe expects coffee exports to be 11.48% larger than the previous year, during this current season when compared to the last. 

The respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Global Agricultural Network USDA have forecast that the new July 2026 to June 2027 Brazil coffee crop shall be larger by 14.13% from the current July 2025 to June 2026 crop.  The USDA has forecast this new crop, which harvest is underway, to come in at a total of 71.90 million bags.   This forecast is in the region of many other independent surveyors and is related to 25% increase year on year in the main natural process arabica coffee production for the coming July 2026 to June 2027 crop year, up to an estimated total 47.50 million bags and a comparative 2.40% marginal decrease in Conilon robusta coffee production year on year, to total 24.40 million bags.

The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported preliminary data that the country’s coffee exports for the month of May were 9.90% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 835,667 bags. IHCAFE have reported that cumulative exports for the first eight months of the current coffee export year are 37.05% higher than the previous year at a total of 4.52 million bags. One might comment that the higher exports recorded during the first eight months of the current coffee export year when compared to the same period in the previous year may be due to the comparatively slower start to the 2025/26 coffee export year. IHCAFE forecast that exports from the current October 2025 to September 2026 crop year to be 4.36% higher than the previous October 2024 to September 2025 year, to reach a total of 5.50 million bags. It is reported by IHCAFE that the United States was the main destination for exports during May, accounting for 34.30% of cumulative shipments followed by Germany and Canada.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange continue to register gradual drawdowns over the last number of months. The certified stocks were registered at 443,608 bags yesterday; this marks a decrease of 448,860 bags or 50.29% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 892,468 bags on 27th May 2025. In comparison, these certified washed arabica stocks have decreased by 9,298 bags or 2.05% since the beginning of 2026.