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The last day in the month of September marks the end of the October to September coffee marketing year for tropical and equatorial coffee producer countries.  This, with the usual round of export statistics that are soon to be released to reflect production and export performance over the twelve-month cycle.  The washed arabica sector are unlikely to render any surprises however, and the futures markets are by nature, already looking to the next harvest cycle ahead, to kickstart the October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year.

The traditionally conservative Brazil government food supply and statistics agency CONAB have come forth to revise their initial forecast for the current Brazil 2026 coffee crop that has just completed harvest, to be 1.35% higher.  CONAB predict the Brazil 2026/27 coffee year to now total 67.60 million bags or 19.65% larger year on year.  CONAB has reported that this higher revision is mainly due to consistent and conducive climate during the crop development phase resulting in positive flowering receiving in the fourth quarter of 2025, in both the conilon robusta and arabica regions, which following the completion of the harvest has led to their revision of an already large crop to be higher than initially estimated.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market registered a decrease of 5,060 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 253,355 bags, with 77.51% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 196,369 bags and the remaining 22.49% being held in the USA at a total 56,986 bags. Of this, a total 48,020 or 18.95% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 21.45% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 54,334 bags and 19.22% from Peru at a total 48,696 bags. The pending grading increased by 1,670 bags on the day, registering 25,355 bags pending grading.

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 97.30% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 11th September 2026.  This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 98.90% of the new crop. Cooxupe have reported a total of 6.32 million bags of their forecast 6.49 million bags to be received by Cooxupe received thus far in the current harvest season. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 89.33% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 8th September 2026:  to register a net long position of 763 lots, which is the equivalent of 216,307 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased and switched to a net short position following the period of firmer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 37,950 Lots or the equivalent of 10,758,657 bags net short position on the day, a decrease of 15.75% over the same week of trade.

As the Northern Hemisphere’s commercial coffee industry has mostly returned to business following the traditional summer holiday period, consumer held coffee stocks are reportedly at historically low levels. At the same time, consumer markets continue to contend with persistent macro-economic pressures. Coffee futures reference prices have started to ease, following the downward trend seen over the past two weeks. Since the beginning of 2026, the New York Arabica market has declined by 16.47%, while London Robusta has fallen by 14.12%.

While reports suggest that Vietnam coffee farmers have mostly sold their 2025/26 crop, and coffee reportedly held by internal traders and exporters at the port city of Ho Chi Minh, September is the last month of the seasonal October to September export year.  Production has registered a recovery from this largest robusta producing country following two consecutive lower production years in 2023/24 and 2024/25.  The current 2025/26 year which is almost complete has performed in line with forecasts and expectations to reach the estimated 29.50 million bags robusta production and robusta exports for the seasonal year to date, reported at 27.58 million bags.  This, with one month of exports ahead, a carryover into the year estimated to be 689,000 bags and the average monthly exports at 2.51 million bags, would indicate that overall robusta exports from the current 25/26 year could reach close to 30 million bags. The late summer rain continues as usual over the main central highland’s coffee districts in Vietnam, as coffee develops toward the new harvest due to seasonally, start in October this year.  The forecast remains a steady average of 29.50 million bags robusta coffee. Vietnam celebrated their National Day holiday earlier this week, which may lead to a somewhat muted close to the week from the world’s largest robusta producer.

Rabobank has come forth to report that they foresee that the global coffee balance sheet will record a 8.90 million bag surplus for the 2026/27 coffee year, with global production pegged at 181.70 million bags against consumption at 172.80 million bags.  This anticipated surplus in production is necessary and will go some way to alleviate pipeline inventory at origin as well as consumer markets, that have been depleted over time.  The bulk of the improved production forecast stems from Brazil, which they expect to come in at 73.30 million bags. This follows their summary of the 2025/26 year, which is reported at a total global coffee production of 172.60 million bags versus global coffee demand at a steady 171.40 million bags.

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 87.50% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 21st August 2026.  This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 91.30% of the new crop. Cooxupe have reported a total of 5.95 million bags of their forecast 6.80 million bags to be received by Cooxupe received thus far in the current harvest season.  This crop harvest that is underway will support exports to consumer markets for the July 2026 to June 2027 Brazil coffee year.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 29.20% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 18th August 2026:  to register a net long position of 15,044 lots, which is the equivalent of 4,264,907 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased marginally following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 51,477 Lots or the equivalent of 14,593,501 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 8.24% over the same week of trade.