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The respected United States Department of Agriculture USDA Global Agricultural Information Network have reported their estimate for the October 2025 to September 2026 Mexican coffee crop production, at a total 4.08 million bags, an increase of 3.87% year on year.   This figure is made up from the production of 3.58 million bags of arabica coffee, steady year on year and 500,000 bags of robusta coffee, up 47.05% year on year. The report further anticipates green coffee exports from this primarily washed arabica producer to reach 1.80 million bags in the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, steady year on year.

With the prevailing twelve-month coffee year in Vietnam that is already eight months in, it has seen exports registered to consumer markets at a total 18.53 million bags during the first seven completed months of the current coffee year.  The weather conditions reflect a seasonally stable environment in the near term, and this largest robusta producer country is forecast to see seasonal rainfall come to the fore after a mildly warmer and drier than normal April.  These weather patterns will continue to be monitored, particularly as forecasts from the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration indicate a likelihood that El Niño conditions could develop later in the year. For Vietnam, El Niño weather patterns are generally associated with warmer and drier conditions across parts of the Central Highlands coffee belt, which can at times influence soil moisture levels. While it remains too early to determine any meaningful impact on production prospects for the next crop cycle, the weather outlook is likely to remain a key point of interest in the months ahead, for coffee market players.

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of April, from this largest washed arabica coffee producer and exporter, registered 6,000, bags or 0.85% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 697,000 bags.  The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first seven months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 2,404,000 bags or 25.78% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,920,000 bags.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 18.55% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 28th April 2026:  to register a new long position of 16,626 lots, which is the equivalent of 4,713,397 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 45,125 Lots or the equivalent of 12,792,738 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 14.83% over the same week of trade. 

The overall supply and demand scenario for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, is largely accepted to be for a supply surplus of around 5 million bags, with overall production at a median level of 178.85 million bags versus an overall consumption demand of 173.85 million bags. The projected five million bag surplus that is currently forecast to come, represents a modest rebalancing rather than a return to surplus, following the years of deficit that have left global origin carryover stocks at historically low levels. Heading into the October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, early forecasts indicate the potential for a global surplus to come of approximately 12 million bags, this assumes favourable conditions continue in Brazil.  A meaningful rebuild of coffee stocks likely to come first from robusta could potentially gradually restore the coffee markets to more normalised levels.

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of March, from this largest washed arabica coffee producer and exporter, registered 306,000, bags or 28.86% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 754,000 bags.  The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first six months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 2,398,000 bags or 29.20% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,223,000 bags.

Trade within the Central American washed arabica producer bloc is reported to have slowed compared to the same period last year, with indications that coffees harvested during the first four to five months of the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year are largely sold and already commercialised. Honduras remains the largest producer and exporter within the region and is expected to export approximately 5.50 million bags, representing a 15.45% increase over the 2024/25 coffee year. In contrast, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua are forecast to see broadly unchanged production, with export performance for the full year likely to remain in line with last season.

Within Brazil meanwhile, the focus in the arabica growing areas will now be on harvest preparations ahead of the new July 2026 to June 2027 coffee harvest, whereas in the Conilon robusta areas, the 2026 harvest has begun.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 14.69% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th April 2026:  to register a new long position of 15,366 lots, which is the equivalent of 4,356,193 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 41,198 Lots or the equivalent of 11,679,450 bags net short position on the day, a decrease of 7.24% over the same week of trade.

The Brazil government have reported preliminary data to illustrate that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of March were 30.97% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2,521,650 bags.  The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for March will be released in the coming days and can be anticipated to detail the breakdown of this export data to arabica, robusta and soluble green coffee equivalent. The reflected export figure is likely related to internal producer resistance in view of the decline in the value against the coffee futures markets, where New York has registered a rather dramatic decline in value of 42.70 usc/Lb., or 12.98% over two months since 1st February 2026.