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Coffee Market Report
Coffee production in Kenya for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year shall likely reach 850,000 bags or 13.33% higher year on year. Of this crop, the forecast is that Kenya will export 11.11% more than the previous year at a total of 800,000 bags of green coffee while local consumption is growing from a low base, registered at a comparatively low 62,000 bags, which releases the majority of the coffee production to the export consumer market. Forecast for the coming 2026/27 year will soon start to come to the fore, which can be anticipated to reflect stable year on year production. Weather conditions have been reported to have improved with rainfall during February positive for the development of the fly crop which will begin harvest in the weeks ahead.
Coffee Market Report
The weather forecasters are indicating cool dry weather across the vast regions of the Brazil coffee growing areas for the remainder of this week, a relatively normal forecast as this largest producer country heads towards the seasonal drier winter months to come. The Brazil Real has appreciated by 4.40% since the beginning of April and settled around the high for the year against the US Dollar, yesterday. The Brazil Real strength to the US Dollar can traditionally discourage selling activity within the interior of Brazil, as returns to producers are diluted in Brazil Real terms, however, one might note that producers are relatively well financed and continue to take a measured stance despite this, with the prevailing Brazil coffee export year drawing to a close. The new robusta harvest already underway in the Conilon areas, to be followed shortly by the arabica harvest. There is limited incentive for internal selling activities to become more aggressive within the current coffee futures market environment.
Coffee Market Report
Trade within the Central American washed arabica producer bloc is reported to have slowed compared to the same period last year, with indications that coffees harvested during the first four to five months of the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year are largely sold and already commercialised. Honduras remains the largest producer and exporter within the region and is expected to export approximately 5.50 million bags, representing a 15.45% increase over the 2024/25 coffee year. In contrast, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua are forecast to see broadly unchanged production, with export performance for the full year likely to remain in line with last season.
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 17.07% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 14th April 2026: to register a new long position of 17,998 lots, which is the equivalent of 5,102,353 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer sideways trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 43,602 Lots or the equivalent of 12,360,974 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 5.83% over the same week of trade.
Coffee Market Report
The winter months are approaching in the southern hemisphere, and this, traditionally sees the focus of the speculative sector within the coffee markets to shift to the largest coffee producer and exporter, Brazil and the potential for the arrival of cooler weather to the vast coffee growing areas in Brazil. This coffee producer country accounts for on average 40.50% of global coffee production. There is some degree of dependency in world consumption terms upon this origin to produce good volumes of coffee year on year, to fuel both their own internal coffee demand as well as consumer market export demand. Thus, weather forecasts will be monitored closely by both the speculative sector and coffee industry participants, as winter months progress through August, with the potential to add further volatility to the coffee futures markets, in the short to medium term.
Coffee Market Report
Within Brazil meanwhile, the focus in the arabica growing areas will now be on harvest preparations ahead of the new July 2026 to June 2027 coffee harvest, whereas in the Conilon robusta areas, the 2026 harvest has begun.
Coffee Market Report
In the latest round of independent forecast updates, the analysts Safras & Mercado revised their earlier projections for the coming Brazil July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year, production is expected to be at a level reach 75.65 million bags. This figure is 6.55% higher than the previous estimate and 17% higher than the current July 2025 to June 2026 coffee year. The report forecasts that Arabica production will total 49.95 million bags, an increase of 6.96% when compared to their initial estimate and that Conilon Robusta production that will reach 25.70 million bags, an increase of 5.76% from their initial estimate. The report makes reference to favorable weather conditions experienced during the development phase, which is leading one to believe that there will be increased yields. This revised estimate is at the upper end of the median average of independent forecasters who foresee on average, the overall Brazil 2026/27 coffee production to potentially reach 72 million bags.
Coffee Market Report
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé, have reported that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of March are 10.14% lower than the same month last year, to total 2.66 million bags, this number made up of 2.29 million bags of arabica coffee down 18.79% from the same month last year and 368,131 bags of Conilon robusta coffee up 164.84% from the same month last year.
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 14.69% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th April 2026: to register a new long position of 15,366 lots, which is the equivalent of 4,356,193 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 41,198 Lots or the equivalent of 11,679,450 bags net short position on the day, a decrease of 7.24% over the same week of trade.
Coffee Market Report
The U.S. Government’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Centre CPC reports that ENSO-neutral conditions are present and favoured through to the middle of this year. ENSO-neutral conditions exist when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present typically bringing more stable and predictable weather. These neutral conditions suggest a reduction in climate anomalies and may contribute to more consistent seasonal forecasts globally. For coffee growing regions, particularly in countries like Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam, ENSO-neutral conditions may help stabilise rainfall patterns and temperatures, which could support more consistent crop development and reduce the risk of weather-related crop disruptions. Weather conditions will be closely monitored as the southern hemisphere transitions into the traditional cooler winter months ahead.
Coffee Market Report
In the latest round of independent Brazil crop forecast updates, the consultancy and commodity broker StoneX has come forth with their report to revise their Brazil coffee production forecast higher by 6.51% from their earlier estimate to now forecast that production could potentially be around 75.30 million bags the coming July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year. Their forecast anticipates 50.20 million bags of mostly natural arabica coffee to come from this leading producer, 6.35% higher from their previous estimate along with an estimated 25.10 million bags Conilon robusta coffee, 6.81% higher than previous forecast. This estimate is at the upper end of the median average of independent forecasters who foresee on average, the overall Brazil 2026/27 coffee production to potentially reach 72 million bags.
Coffee Market Report
The Brazil government have reported preliminary data to illustrate that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of March were 30.97% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2,521,650 bags. The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for March will be released in the coming days and can be anticipated to detail the breakdown of this export data to arabica, robusta and soluble green coffee equivalent. The reflected export figure is likely related to internal producer resistance in view of the decline in the value against the coffee futures markets, where New York has registered a rather dramatic decline in value of 42.70 usc/Lb., or 12.98% over two months since 1st February 2026.
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector switch their net long position to a new net short position within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 31st March 2026: to register a new net short position of 617 Lots which is the equivalent of 102,833 bags. This net short position has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed trade that has since followed.
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 12.99% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 31st March 2026: to register a new long position of 18,013 lots, which is the equivalent of 5,106,606 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed overall sideways trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 44,416 Lots or the equivalent of 12,591,739 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 1.61% over the same week of trade.
Coffee Market Report
The weather forecasters are indicating sporadic rainfall across the vast regions of the Brazil coffee growing areas for the remainder of this week, a relatively normal forecast as this largest producer country heads towards the seasonal drier winter months to come. The Brazil Real has strengthened by 6.29% since the beginning of the year. The Brazil Real strength to the US Dollar can traditionally discourage selling activity within the interior of Brazil, one might also comment that producers are relatively well financed and continue to take a measured stance, with the prevailing Brazil coffee export year drawing to a close soon, and the new robusta harvest soon to begin in the Conilon areas, to be followed mid-year by the arabica harvest.
Coffee Market Report
The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of February were 73,475 bags or 25.43% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 215,345 bags. The island nation’s cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first eleven months of the current April 2025 to March 2026 coffee year to be 1,701,386 bags or 48.80% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 5,187,570. The April 2025 to March 2026 coffee year, which is drawing to a close, of which 85% robusta coffee and the balance arabica coffee, is forecast to reach a cumulative total, 12.60 million bags. The new coffee crop to come from Indonesia is set to start coming to the fore in the next couple of months as harvest of robusta coffees will soon begin, for their April 2026 to March 2027 coffee year. The new coffee crop which is around 80% robusta coffee and the balance arabica coffee, is forecast ahead of the harvest to potentially reach a forecast median of 11.50 million bags. One might expect to see these forecasts potentially revised in the weeks ahead as coffee production from the earlier in the year weather affected regions of Sumatra and Aceh are closely monitored.
Coffee Market Report
Trade within Vietnam has remained neutral over the past weeks in the context of coffee supply from the October 2025 to January 2026 harvest, which has been anticipated to reach 31 million bags Robusta Coffee, 13.55% higher than the previous coffee year. Of this current October 2025 to September 2026, mainly robusta coffee crop, which is now halfway through their coffee export year, it is forecast that Vietnam will export a total of 24.60 million bags, around 10.50% more the previous coffee year. Many coffee farmers in Vietnam are diversified in that they do have other cash crops intercropped with coffee; this allows them to capitalise on sales of other income generating agricultural crops, throughout the coffee export season. Meanwhile, in Indonesia albeit early for the new robusta coffee crop, there will soon be new crop coffees starting to flow to the market. The volumes of coffees will start to increase over the next months as the countries new April 2026 to March 2027 Robusta coffee crop has begun harvest.
Coffee Market Report
Coffee production in Kenya for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year shall likely reach 850,000 bags or 13.33% higher year on year. Of this crop, the forecast is that Kenya will export 11.11% more than the previous year at a total of 800,000 bags of green coffee while local consumption is growing from a low base, registered at a comparatively low 62,000 bags, which releases the majority of the coffee production to the export consumer market. Forecast for the coming 2026/27 year will soon start to come to the fore, which can be anticipated to reflect stable year on year production. Weather conditions have been reported to have improved with rainfall during February positive for the development of the fly crop which will begin harvest in the weeks ahead.
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 50.37% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th March 2026: to register a new long position of 15,941 lots, which is the equivalent of 4,519,203 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased further, following the period of firmer overall trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 43,711 Lots or the equivalent of 12,391,874 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 17.09% over the same week of trade.
In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market, the shorter term in Nature Managed Money Fund increased their net-long position by 28.72% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th March 2026; to register a new long position at 23,932 Lots. The longer term in nature, the Index Fund sector of this market increased their net-long position by 2.48% within the market, to register a new net-long position of 27,124 Lots on the day.
Coffee Market Report
In the latest consumer stock reports, which are released retrospectively, the European Coffee Federation, E.C.F. have reported that the port warehouse coffee stocks held in reporting warehouses in Belgium, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, have registered a 7.51% decrease during the month of February 2026 to total 6,802,533 bags at the end of the month. The stocks are reported as 2,502,100 bags robusta coffee, 2,118,550 bags natural arabica coffee Including Brazil semi-washed, and 2,181,883 bags washed arabica coffee.
This figure reported at the end of February 2026 is 7.98% lower to the same time last year when the port warehouse coffee stocks registered at 7,392,750 at the end of February 2025. The overall European Coffee Federation port warehouse stocks reported, include the certified coffee stocks that are held in certified warehouses and registered to the New York and London exchanges.
Coffee Market Report
A Reuters poll released yesterday has drawn from various sources to report the October 2025 to September 2026 global coffee supply demand situation is anticipated to end with a narrow surplus of 1 million bags. The poll also concluded that global coffee supply is seen to be in a surplus of 8.70 million bags for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year.
While in terms of the global coffee supply factor and while the poll concluded that the current July 2025 to June 2026 Brazil crop is likely to be around 64 million bags. The poll has indicated that for the coming Brazil July 2026 to June 2027, the next biennially bearing year in the Brazil coffee cycle, that production levels could reach 74 million bags or 15.62% higher year on year, which one might note is already for the most part, a factor that is absorbed by the markets.
Coffee Market Report
The tropical coffee producer countries that have or are shortly due to start harvest of their mid-year coffee crops include Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Uganda, Peru, Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda.
The situation in Brazil meanwhile has presented some challenges as the prevailing smaller and tighter arabica crop that remains valid for the 2025/26 coffee year, has converged with a lower liquidation driven New York futures market to see the internal market stalled. Brazil finer cup qualities, already reduced in availability terms at the outset of this harvest in July 2025, has seen differentials climb in response to internal price resistance and a reticence for coffee to be released any lower than outright price expectation. The internal market ahead of the new crop that will start to be harvested in the next couple of months, lacks financial motivation for current crop coffees to be released to the market.
Coffee Market Report
The National Coffee Association NCA, based in the United States, held its annual convention earlier this month in Tampa, Florida, convening industry participants to assess market developments, macroeconomic headwinds, and the evolving global coffee landscape. Discussions centred on inflation and interest rate expectations, highlighting rising input costs across the supply chain, tighter financing conditions due to elevated borrowing costs, and currency volatility, all of which are placing pressure on margins and pricing strategies. In parallel, shifting consumer behaviour was a key focus, with participants noting a growing divide between value-conscious consumers and those able to spend on premium offerings, the evidence of sustained at-home consumption, as well as apparent increase in demand for convenience such as ready-to-drink and single-serve products.
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 36.45% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th March 2026: to register a new long position of 10,601 lots, which is the equivalent of 3,005,336 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased further, following the period of firmer overall trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 37,330 Lots or the equivalent of 10,582,890 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 8.39% over the same week of trade.
Coffee Market Report
Ethiopia, Africa's leading arabica coffee producer is independently forecast to produce 8.50 million bags for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, around 4.50% lower in production than the previous year. The export performance in 2024/25 would indicate another year of potential for Ethiopia to export 7.50 million bags of green coffee. This was a feature of this country’s export performance in the prior year, related to an internal easing of foreign exchange regulations, equally met with the historic all-time high value in the arabica futures market. The median of forecast for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year is that the exclusively arabica coffee crop from Ethiopia could reach 8.25 million bags. With limited carryover stocks after the record 2024/25 export season, domestic consumption is estimated to be somewhere in the region of 3.50 to 4 million bags.
Coffee Market Report
The current Brazil July 2025 to June 2026 arabica crop has reflected cumulative exports of arabica coffee for the first eight months of the current year to be 16.74% lower overall, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 20.73 million bags. Conilon robusta coffee exports for the first eight months of the current coffee year total 2.92 million bags, a decrease of 48.22% versus the same time last year. The value added and soluble sector reported over the same eight months to be 2.36 million bags, a 17.19% decrease when compared the same eight months in the previous coffee year. The USA tariff structure implemented last year held at a high rate of 50% and in place for a longer period than green coffee. This hefty tariff to imports to the States for soluble coffee from Brazil, is likely to be a causal factor in the reflection of the lower Brazil soluble and value addition export figures.
Coffee Market Report
The analysts Safras & Mercado report that Brazilian coffee farmers have sold approximately 77% of the estimated 64.25 million bags from the 2025/26 crop. This pace lags behind the same time last year, when around 93% of the crop had already been sold. Uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs with the U.S. may have contributed to the slower selling pace; although tariffs were lifted in late November, export sales to the U.S. have resumed more gradually than in previous years.
Coffee Market Report
The northern hemisphere’s primary coffee-consuming markets including Canada, Europe, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States collectively account for approximately 95 million bags of coffee consumption per annum, gradually emerge from winter coffee moving towards the traditionally slower summer consumption months ahead. At the same time, macroeconomic conditions remain a key area of focus. While inflationary pressures have eased in direct comparison to previous years, consumer households across developed markets continue to face elevated living costs and tighter financial conditions. This has sustained concerns about discretionary spending, including out-of-home coffee consumption, although demand has proven relatively resilient. In the near term, pricing and supply dynamics are being influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 120.13% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th March 2026: to register a new long position of 7,696 lots, which is the equivalent of 2,181,782 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed, following the period of softer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 34,440 Lots or the equivalent of 9,763,587 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 11.75% over the same week of trade.
Coffee Market Report Archive
Coffee Market Report
While reports suggest that Vietnam coffee farmers have mostly sold their 2025/26 crop, and coffee reportedly held by internal traders and exporters at the port city of Ho Chi Minh, September is the last month of the seasonal October to September export...
Coffee Market Report
In the latest round of independent Brazil crop forecast updates, the consultancy and commodity broker StoneX has come forth with their report to revise their Brazil coffee production forecast lower by 2.60% from their earlier estimate to now forecast...
Coffee Market Report
The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of July were 83,395 bags or 15.51% lower than the same month last year, at a total...
Coffee Market Report
Rabobank has come forth to report that they foresee that the global coffee balance sheet will record a 8.90 million bag surplus for the 2026/27 coffee year, with global production pegged at 181.70 million bags against consumption at 172.80 million...
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 3.66% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25th August 2026: to...
Coffee Market Report
With the current Brazilian harvest nearly complete, weather reports suggest that mild conditions will continue through September, with rains expected to pick up in the days ahead. Forecasters indicate that increased sporadic rainfall should reach parts...
Coffee Market Report
The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 87.50% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 21st August 2026. This compared with the...
Coffee Market Report
The Brazil Real currency has strengthened by 5.98% against the US Dollar since the beginning of 2026, this may continue to contribute to a measured approach of producer selling activity within Brazil. This while the new crop harvest is by now mostly...
Coffee Market Report
A Reuters poll released yesterday has drawn from various sources to report the October 2025 to September 2026 global coffee supply demand situation is anticipated to end with a narrow surplus of 1.70 million bags. The poll also concluded that global...
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 29.20% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 18th August 2026: to...
Coffee Market Report
Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 94% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 19th August 2026. Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 71.11...
Coffee Market Report
The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 81.10% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 14th August 2026. This compared with the...
Coffee Market Report
The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,126 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 229,214 bags, with 73.15% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 167,689 and the...
Coffee Market Report
The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 105 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 231,340 bags, with 72.64% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 168,046 and the...
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 11.93% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 11th August 2026: to...
Coffee Market Report
Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 90% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 12th August 2026. Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 68.08...
Coffee Market Report
The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 74.60% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 7th August 2026. This compared with the...
Coffee Market Report
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé, have reported that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of July are 8.67% higher than the same month last year, to total 2.67 million bags, this number made up of 1.82 million bags of...
Coffee Market Report
Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 84% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 5th August 2026. The harvest this year is at a slower pace, when compared to the same time last year that was reported at 94% and the...
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 15.70% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 4th August 2026: to...
Coffee Market Report
In the most recent revision, the U.S. Department of Agriculture USDA Foreign Agricultural Service has left the forecast for global coffee production for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year unchanged at 178.80 million bags, a figure...
Coffee Market Report
The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 67.30% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 31st July 2026. This compared with the...
Coffee Market Report
Coffee consumption within South Korea continues to be underpinned by a robust café culture. However, according to the Customs Service, total coffee imports during the first half of 2026 declined by 14.62% year-on-year to 1.46 million bags. Approximately...
Coffee Market Report
The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of July have registered 43.31% higher than the same month in the previous year, at 2,460,000 bags. The cumulative export performance for the first ten months of the...
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 16.60% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 28th July 2026: to...
Coffee Market Report
Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 78% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 29th July 2026. The harvest this year is at a slower pace, when compared to the same time last year that was reported at 90%. Based...
Coffee Market Report
The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 58.30% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 24th July 2026. This compared with the...
Coffee Market Report
Despite the advancing Brazilian harvest and expectations for a large, potentially record, natural arabica crop, unseasonal rainfall earlier in the harvest delayed activities and processing across key producing regions. At the same time, well-financed...
Coffee Market Report
Weather conditions across Brazil remain broadly favourable for harvesting, with temperatures forecast to stay seasonally mild across the southeastern coffee-growing regions. The Brazil Real currency has strengthened by 6.60% against the US Dollar since...
Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 15.02% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 21st July 2026: to...
Coffee Market Report
The U.S. Department of Agriculture USDA Foreign Agricultural Services have left their forecast for global coffee production for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year unchanged to reach 178.80 million bags, this number 1.14% higher than...
