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The respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Global Agricultural Network USDA have forecast that the new July 2026 to June 2027 Brazil coffee crop shall be larger by 14.13% from the current July 2025 to June 2026 crop.  The USDA has forecast this new crop, which harvest is underway, to come in at a total of 71.90 million bags.   This forecast is in the region of many other independent surveyors and is related to 25% increase year on year in the main natural process arabica coffee production for the coming July 2026 to June 2027 crop year, up to an estimated total 47.50 million bags and a comparative 2.40% marginal decrease in Conilon robusta coffee production year on year, to total 24.40 million bags.

The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported preliminary data that the country’s coffee exports for the month of May were 9.90% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 835,667 bags. IHCAFE have reported that cumulative exports for the first eight months of the current coffee export year are 37.05% higher than the previous year at a total of 4.52 million bags. One might comment that the higher exports recorded during the first eight months of the current coffee export year when compared to the same period in the previous year may be due to the comparatively slower start to the 2025/26 coffee export year. IHCAFE forecast that exports from the current October 2025 to September 2026 crop year to be 4.36% higher than the previous October 2024 to September 2025 year, to reach a total of 5.50 million bags. It is reported by IHCAFE that the United States was the main destination for exports during May, accounting for 34.30% of cumulative shipments followed by Germany and Canada.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange continue to register gradual drawdowns over the last number of months. The certified stocks were registered at 443,608 bags yesterday; this marks a decrease of 448,860 bags or 50.29% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 892,468 bags on 27th May 2025. In comparison, these certified washed arabica stocks have decreased by 9,298 bags or 2.05% since the beginning of 2026.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decreased their net long position by 31.88% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 19th May 2026:  to register a new long position of 8,554 lots, which is the equivalent of 2,425,021 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally increased following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 33,989 Lots or the equivalent of 9,635,731 bags net short position on the day, a decrease of 15.22% over the same week of trade.

The International Coffee Organisation, ICO, have come forth with their April 2026 monthly report to indicate that the global coffee exports for the month of March 2026 were 1.60% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 13.59 million bags. This has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first six months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 3.30% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a reported total 70.91 million bags.

The respected United States Department of Agriculture USDA Global Agricultural Information Network have reported their estimate for the October 2025 to September 2026 Mexican coffee crop production, at a total 4.08 million bags, an increase of 3.87% year on year.   This figure is made up from the production of 3.58 million bags of arabica coffee, steady year on year and 500,000 bags of robusta coffee, up 47.05% year on year. The report further anticipates green coffee exports from this primarily washed arabica producer to reach 1.80 million bags in the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, steady year on year.

With the prevailing twelve-month coffee year in Vietnam that is already eight months in, it has seen exports registered to consumer markets at a total 18.53 million bags during the first seven completed months of the current coffee year.  The weather conditions reflect a seasonally stable environment in the near term, and this largest robusta producer country is forecast to see seasonal rainfall come to the fore after a mildly warmer and drier than normal April.  These weather patterns will continue to be monitored, particularly as forecasts from the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration indicate a likelihood that El Niño conditions could develop later in the year. For Vietnam, El Niño weather patterns are generally associated with warmer and drier conditions across parts of the Central Highlands coffee belt, which can at times influence soil moisture levels. While it remains too early to determine any meaningful impact on production prospects for the next crop cycle, the weather outlook is likely to remain a key point of interest in the months ahead, for coffee market players.

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of April, from this largest washed arabica coffee producer and exporter, registered 6,000, bags or 0.85% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 697,000 bags.  The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first seven months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 2,404,000 bags or 25.78% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,920,000 bags.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 18.55% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 28th April 2026:  to register a new long position of 16,626 lots, which is the equivalent of 4,713,397 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 45,125 Lots or the equivalent of 12,792,738 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 14.83% over the same week of trade. 

The overall supply and demand scenario for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, is largely accepted to be for a supply surplus of around 5 million bags, with overall production at a median level of 178.85 million bags versus an overall consumption demand of 173.85 million bags. The projected five million bag surplus that is currently forecast to come, represents a modest rebalancing rather than a return to surplus, following the years of deficit that have left global origin carryover stocks at historically low levels. Heading into the October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, early forecasts indicate the potential for a global surplus to come of approximately 12 million bags, this assumes favourable conditions continue in Brazil.  A meaningful rebuild of coffee stocks likely to come first from robusta could potentially gradually restore the coffee markets to more normalised levels.