The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market raise their net long position within this market by 11.98% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 28th. September; to register a new net long position 43,039 lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market raised their net long position within the market by 1.43%, to register a net long position of 54,613 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 11.76% to register a new net long position 41,512 lots, which is the equivalent of 11,768,468 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased further following the period of firmer trade that has since followed.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of September were 203,000 bags or 20% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,091,000 bags. This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to be 467,000 bags or 3.71% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 13,031,000 bags.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have also reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of September was 215,000 bags or 22% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,210,000 bags. This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee production for the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to be 6% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 13,900,000 bags.
The November-to-December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday to register this at 97.47 usc/Lb. This equates to 50.39% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage will likely be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 66,282 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,973,016 bags, with 95.38% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,881,951 bags and the remaining 4.62% being held in the USA at a total 91,065 bags. Of this, a total 1,058,720 bags, or 53.66% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 40.35% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile an increase of 16,462 bags to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 24,537 bags pending grading on the day.
The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 31,500 bags over the week of trade leading up to Monday 4th October to see these stocks registered at 2,047,500 bags, on the day.
It was a firmer day on the commodity markets on yesterday, the US Dollar gained ground against a basket of other currencies. The Coffee, Wheat, Gold and Platinum markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Silver and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.357 Sterling, at 1.152 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.493 Brazil Real.
The New York market started the day yesterday trading on a softer note while the London market started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note. Both the New York and London markets started to gain momentum early during the morning session, this saw the New York market hit a ceiling for the day during the early morning session. As the afternoon progressed the markets dropped back from the highs of the morning before trending in a firmer direction to see both the New York and the London markets settle on a positive note at the close.
The London market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 25% of the gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note and with 50.82% of the gains of the day intact. This modest though firmer close, albeit that the markets dropped back from the earlier in the day highs, might inspire some degree of follow through confidence to possibly set the markets for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
NOV 2116 + 5 DEC 193.45 + 1.55
JAN 2116 + 7 MAR 196.40 + 1.55
MAR 2072 + 8 MAY 197.55 + 1.55
MAY 2050 + 8 JUL 198.15 + 1.60
JUL 2043 + 7 SEP 198.45 + 1.55
SEP 2045 + 7 DEC 198.80 + 1.50
NOV 2049 + 7 MAR 199.10 + 1.50
The markets set the close on Monday 4th October, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
NOV 2148 – 20 DEC 200.35 – 3.70
JAN 2140 – 21 MAR 203.25 – 3.65
MAR 2088 – 20 MAY 204.40 – 3.55
MAY 2066 – 19 JUL 204.90 – 3.45
JUL 2059 – 19 SEP 205.30 – 3.35
SEP 2061 – 19 DEC 205.65 – 3.35
NOV 2065 – 19 MAR 205.95 – 3.30
The markets set the close on Tuesday 5th October, as follows:
NOV 2111 – 37 DEC 191.90 – 8.45
JAN 2109 – 31 MAR 194.85 – 8.40
MAR 2064 – 24 MAY 196.00 – 8.40
MAY 2042 – 24 JUL 196.55 – 8.35
JUL 2036 – 23 SEP 196.90 – 8.40
SEP 2038 – 23 DEC 197.30 – 8.35
NOV 2042 – 23 MAR 197.60 – 8.35