Market Reports

Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 78% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 29^th July 2026.  The harvest this year is at a slower pace, when compared to the same time last year that was reported at 90%.  Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 59.01 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of around 24.93 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, that is anticipated to come in at 25.70 million bags and approximately 34.01 million bags of arabica coffee harvested thus far, of a total estimated by Safras & Mercado to come in at 49.95 million bags.

Brazil weather conditions are expected to remain relatively warm and dry for the days ahead, which would be considered seasonally normal for this time of year.  Weather forecasters have indicated that there is a chance that sporadic rainfall could reach varying regions within the vast coffee growing areas towards the end of next week to bring with it some cooler temperatures, although forecast to be modest in nature and with no reported concerns. Weather conditions continue to be a point of discussion within the markets as the traditionally cooler winter period begins to wind down over the weeks ahead and the speculative sector look to the onset of the spring and summer rains.

In other coffee news, researchers from the Department of Physiology and Pharmacology at Texas A&M University have published new findings in the journal called Nutrients that provide further insight into the potential health benefits of coffee consumption. The study identified a possible biological pathway through which naturally occurring coffee compounds, including polyphenols such as caffeic and chlorogenic acids, may activate the NR4A1 protein, which is associated with reducing inflammation, protecting cells from oxidative stress, and supporting healthy aging.  The research was conducted using laboratory cell models rather than human clinical trials, thus highlightted the need for further clinical research.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 7,964 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 266,204 bags, with 72.04% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 191,769 and the remaining 27.96% being held in the USA at a total 74,435 bags. Of this, a total 6,428 or 2.41% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.36% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 78,172 bags and 20.47% from Peru at a total 54,496 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 151.59 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.92% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with newly released macroeconomic data indicating that Personal Consumption Data in the US fell by 0.1% during June which is in line with expectations and likely a result of renewed geopolitical uncertainty, while the US Dollar was weaker on the day. The London Robusta Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.348 Sterling, at 1.154 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.069 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading in modest firmer territory, while the New York market started the day on a firmer note from the outset. Both markets quickly gained support to trend in a firmer direction and set a new high for the morning. As the afternoon progressed, the firmer action in both markets continued to see the New York market set a ceiling for the day while the London market dropped back from the earlier highs to trend back towards par and settle into a range. The New York market encountered a degree of selling pressure late in the day to drop through par and into negative territory. The London market settled on a modest near to unchanged firmer note at the close while the New York market set a new low for the day late in the session to settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged positive note, with 8.04% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest negative note with 77.47% of earlier losses of the day on the intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the New York market settling on a softer note recovering more than half of the earlier losses of the day and the London market settling on a modest near to unchanged firmer note, might see the markets set for little better than a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: