Market Reports

Despite the advancing Brazilian harvest and expectations for a large, potentially record, natural arabica crop, unseasonal rainfall earlier in the harvest delayed activities and processing across key producing regions. At the same time, well-financed Brazilian producers have shown little urgency to increase internal selling, limiting the flow of coffee into export channels. With ICE certified arabica stocks remaining low, roasters continue to compete for nearby physical supplies, reinforcing the inverted market structure and supporting elevated prompt month premiums.

The New York arabica coffee market continues to reflect the tightness of nearby physical supplies through a pronounced inverted market structure and historically elevated spreads between the front futures months. This steep backwardation removes liquidity from the physical market, as the high cost of carrying coffee, including storage and financing, discourages exporters, traders and industry from holding inventories for extended periods. Instead, coffee is sold into the nearby market where premiums remain most attractive, although visibility of this coffee is not yet out in the public domain. The substantial premium of the prompt month over deferred contracts is indicative of a market experiencing immediate supply tightness, with demand for nearby deliverable coffee continuing to outpace available stocks. The current inversion has strengthened to levels not seen since 1997, highlighting the severity of the nearby supply squeeze.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange have continued their steady decline, falling to levels last seen in February 2024, to register at 289,759 bags yesterday. This represents a decrease of 510,567 bags, or 63.79%, from the same time last year when certified washed arabica coffee stocks stood at 800,326 bags on 27^th July 2025. In comparison, these certified washed arabica coffee stocks have declined by 163,396 bags, or 36.06%, since the beginning of 2026.

The washed arabica coffee origins that can deliver to the certified warehouse exchange stocks are Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Panama, Peru, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. These origins are deliverable to the exchange at varying price premiums or discounts, depending on the prevailing price structure in New York. Honduras remains the largest contributor to certified stocks, followed by Peru, while Brazil’s contribution remains comparatively modest despite the ongoing harvest. Although the new Brazil 2026/27 crop is continuing to move into commercial channels, well-financed producers and measured internal selling have limited the flow of coffee into exchange-certified warehouses. These daily stock figures continue to be closely monitored by the speculative sector of the market as a key indicator of readily available arabica coffee supplies within the major consumer markets. The record low certified stocks maintaining the potential for continued prompt month squeezes and heightened nearby market volatility.

The Certified robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange reported at 689,833 bags as of the 28^th July 2026, this figure 481,667 bags or 41.11% lower than the same time last year.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 3,051 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 289,759 bags, with 68.90% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 199,646 and the remaining 31.10% being held in the USA at a total 90,113 bags. Of this, a total 6,714 or 2.31% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 30.54% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 88,493 bags and 19.83% from Peru at a total 57,482 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 163.54 Usc/Lb. This equates to 48.18% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, weighed by a firmer US Dollar and the US Federal Reserve Policy meeting which will conclude later this week.  The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.330 Sterling, at 1.140 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.127 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets opened the day trading to the north of par from the outset. Both markets quickly made gains with support to trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed, in a void of selling activity.  The upward moment in New York in a market continued through to the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered a slight degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a very firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back and settle on a firm note, with more than half of the day’s gains intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 53.06% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 67.19% of earlier gains of the day on the intact. This follow through very firm close, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory albeit that the markets dropped back from the day’s highs late the session, in a heavy volume day.  With the speculative sector at the helm and technical moves in play, the markets might be in for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: