Market Reports

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 15.02% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 21^st July 2026:  to register a net long position of 10,583 lots, which is the equivalent of 3,000,234 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased further following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 46,746 Lots or the equivalent of 13,252,284 bags net short position on the day, a decrease of 1.52% over the same week of trade.

In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market, the shorter term in nature Managed Money Fund decreased their net-long position by 0.40% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 21^st July 2026; to register a new long position at 24,866 Lots. The longer term in nature, the Index Fund sector of this market increased their net-long position by 2.67% within the market, to register a new net-long position of 34,432 Lots on the day.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 1.52% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 21^st July 2026: to register a new net long position of 42,414 Lots which is the equivalent of 7,069,000 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

In other international coffee trade news, the Office of the United States Trade Representative USTR on Friday concluded its second Section 301 to announce new tariffs affecting 60 countries. Importantly for the coffee sector, all existing exemptions for green and roasted coffee have been retained, while unflavoured soluble instant coffee has also been added to the exemption list following extensive advocacy by the USA National Coffee Association NCA.  The decision means that, virtually all coffee and coffee product imports into the United States will now remain tariff-free. While further trade policy reviews remain underway, the latest decision provides some degree of certainty for exporters and roasters supplying one of the world’s largest coffee consuming markets.

Weather conditions are reported to be seasonally normal in Brazil, with temperatures predicted to be in the mid to low teens in degrees Celsius throughout the Brazil southeastern coffee regions. The midwinter full moon is due in two days’ time on the 29^th July and temperatures are forecast to remain mild as the Brazilian winter season continues.  Weather is conducive for the harvest in this country, and this is near to completion in the robusta areas and is set to continue in the southeastern arabica regions into August.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,566 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 311,317 bags, with 70.70% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 220,104 and the remaining 29.30% being held in the USA at a total 91,213 bags. Of this, a total 9,556 or 3.07% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.65% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 92,317 bags and 18.95% from Peru at a total 58,982 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 143.39 Usc/Lb. This equates to 45.69% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets on Friday, with the leading in influence Oil markets firmer on the day providing some degree of buoyancy to the greater commodity basket, while investors look ahead to the US Federal Reserve Policy meeting outcomes later this week.  The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Wheat, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.335 Sterling, at 1.140 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.087 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday in muted volume, trading on modest softer notes respectively. The trend was quickly reversed in London to see the market gain momentum and trend firmer during the early morning session.  The New York market was slower to react and having set a higher level, traded either side of par in a comparatively quiet volume morning.  Both the New York and London markets were seen to build support as the day progressed.  The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York higher, triggering buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, this assisted to trigger speculative short covering which saw the New York market gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make gains throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued the upward momentum before being capped during the afternoon session to limit the day’s gains. The market dropped back to settle on a firmer note, with some of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market was seen to also settle on a firm note at the close, with half of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 53.26% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 48.09% of earlier gains of the day on the intact. This firmer close might see the markets set for a steady start to early trade today, albeit that the markets dropped back from the highs of the day during the session to settle on firmer notes at the close and one might think that the markets are due for a follow through hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows