Market Reports

The U.S. Department of Agriculture USDA Foreign Agricultural Services have left their forecast for global coffee production for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year unchanged to reach 178.80 million bags, this number 1.14% higher than the previous 2024/25 year.

The USDA have revised their forecast for global coffee demand for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year higher by 2.41% to possibly reach 173.46 million bags. Their latest forecast would indicate the potential for a global surplus coffee supply of 5.34 million bags, which one might comment is on the higher end of independent supply and demand forecasts. The respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Global Agricultural Network USDA have also reported their forecast for the end of year global coffee stocks for the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 24.37 million bags, some 10.72% higher than the previous year.

The USDA forecast global coffee production for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year to reach 189.67 million bags, 6.10% higher than the current year. This, due primarily to an anticipated increase in overall arabica production from Brazil.   In this respect, the USDA have forecast an estimated production output in Brazil for the July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year to be 14.13% higher than the current 2025/26 coffee year, to reach a potential total of 71.90 million bags, this number made up of 47.50 million bags arabica coffee, up 35% year on year and 24.40 million bags Conilon robusta coffee, down 2.40% year on year.

The USDA reports that seasonal coffee year October 2026 to September 2027 in leading Robusta coffee producing country, Vietnam, has the potential with weather this far conducive to reach 32.50 million bags overall production. This estimate is indicated at 2.52% larger than the lower yielding current October 2025 to September 2026 crop. The estimate made up of 31.40 million bags Robusta coffee, up 2.96% from the current coffee year and 1.10 million bags of Arabica coffee, steady on the current year. Added to this they foresee that carryover stocks from the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year shall add a modest 489,000 bags of coffee into the coming 2026/27 crop year.

The USDA forecast for global coffee demand for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year to possibly reach 179.74 million bags. This latest forecast indicates a potential for a global surplus coffee supply of 9.93 million bags. One might comment that with producer and consumer carryover stocks depleted, this surplus is necessary and should the forecast come about, toward the latter half of 2027, would be a welcome contribution to pipeline carryover stocks in county and in consumer markets.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,732 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 315,883 bags, with 71.12% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 224,670 and the remaining 28.88% being held in the USA at a total 91,213 bags. Of this, a total 9,556 or 3.02% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.23% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 92,317 bags and 18.75% from Peru at a total 59,232 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 141.21 Usc/Lb. This equates to 45.64% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, while the US Dollar was firmer on the day, traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy due to take place next week, which will provide a decision on interest rate trajectory.  The Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.331 Sterling, at 1.138 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.080 Brazil Real.

The London market opened trading to the south of par in modest softer territory yesterday, while the New York market started the day trading on a very firm note from the outset. The markets quickly encountered a large degree of resistance to drop back into softer territory. Following the opening a sharply lower speculative selling track took hold in limited volume. The markets encountered an increased degree of selling pressure during the early afternoon session, with the arrival of the America’s reflecting increased volume and a continuation of speculative selling on the New York floor triggered stops along the way. The London market dropped lower following the moves in New York and speculative long liquidation accentuated the negative moves in both markets. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade; the New York market recovered marginally off of the lows of the day, while the London market settled on the lows for the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 96.70% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 85.29% of earlier losses of the day on the intact. This follow through soft close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day, to set the tone for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows