Market Reports

Weather conditions are reported to be moderately cooler than historically normal, with temperatures predicted to be in the mid to low teens in degrees Celsius throughout the Brazil southeastern coffee regions. The midwinter full moon is due on 29^th July and temperatures are forecast to remain mild as the Brazilian winter season continues.  Weather is conducive for the harvest in this country, and this is near to completion in the robusta areas and is set to continue in the southeastern arabica regions into August, following unseasonal rains at the beginning of June which saw harvest activities marginally delayed.

The new coffee crops in Mexico and Central America are steadily ripening, ahead for the new October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year. There are meanwhile still limited flows of the mid-year mitaca crop from Colombia as well as new crop coffees form Peru to consumer markets at this time.

The new Indonesian coffee harvest continues for the country’s April 2026 to March 2027 coffee year. Production, comprising approximately 85% robusta and 15% arabica, has been conservatively forecast at a median of 11.40 million bags. Domestic competition for robusta remains strong, with local consumption continuing to absorb a growing share of production. As a result, Indonesia’s green robusta export share has gradually declined over recent years, despite the country remaining one of the world’s top ten robusta exporters. The latest USDA estimates place Indonesian coffee exports at approximately 7.0 million bags for the 2026/27 marketing year. It is a widely held view Indonesia robusta production is largely a smallholder family farmer crop, with the average yield per hectare in the main robusta growing southern areas is put somewhere in the region of a low overall average 830 Kgs., per hectare, in comparison with a regional neighbour and leading robusta producer, Vietnam, which country reports an average of around 2,900 Kgs., yield per hectare.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,111 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 328,759 bags, with 72.17% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 237,296 and the remaining 27.83% being held in the USA at a total 91,463 bags. Of this, a total 10,288 or 3.13% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.49% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 96,967 bags and 18.01% from Peru at a total 59,232 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened, to register this at 148.92 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.23% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meetings due to be held early next week which will provide an update on interest rate direction, while Oil prices continue to find support with the ongoing Geo-political challenges in the Middle East. The Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Coffee and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.338 Sterling, at 1.141 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.075 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day trading in modest near to unchanged softer territory, whilst the New York market started the day trading to the south of par from the outset. Both markets registered a softer track in the early morning session, before finding support to rebound from the morning lows and trend back towards par. The London market hit a ceiling for the early morning session early in the day, to introduce sellers at the highs, the choppy trade in New York continued in positive territory, making gains throughout the morning session, buoyed by a large degree of underlying buying support and lack of selling pressure, whilst the London market set a range. As the afternoon progressed, the London market continued on a modest softer path, in negative territory.  The New York market dropped back from the day’s highs late in the session to drop through par and settle on a modest softer note at the close, albeit above the day’s lows. The London market recovered from the earlier lows to settle on a softer note at the close, albeit with more than half of the day’s losses intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 85.71% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 64.47% of earlier losses of the day on the intact. This softer close for the markets, with the London market settling on a softer note with most of the earlier losses of the day intact, and the New York market settling on a modest softer note at the close albeit back from the day’s lows, might see the markets set for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows