Market Reports

With the coffee futures markets, participants will be closely monitoring whether the recent easing in the London inversion represents the beginning of a broader rebalancing or merely a temporary adjustment. Although nearby robusta spreads have softened from their recent wide levels, the physical market remains tight on stock levels, as is evidenced in the levels of the certified exchange stocks published by the Intercontinental Exchange. Within the New York market, there continues to be a significant inversion between the prompt month and the further out months, as the arabica market continues to place a much higher premium on nearby availability. Until physical stocks begin to rebuild more convincingly, the nearby position will likely remain under pressure, limiting the market’s ability to return to a more traditional carry structure. For the broader trade, the persistence of inverted markets continues to challenge conventional hedging, financing and inventory strategies across the supply chain.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 3,075 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 329,870 bags, with 72.10% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 237,846 and the remaining 27.90% being held in the USA at a total 92,024 bags. Of this, a total 10,288 or 3.11% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.47% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 97,242 bags and 17.96% from Peru at a total 59,232 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened, to register this at 148.37 Usc/Lb. This equates to 45.72% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was an overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence oil markets firmer on the day, while the US Dollar strengthened which is traditionally seen as a bullish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, Wheat and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.344 Sterling, at 1.142 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.091 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day modest firmer note, while the New York market followed opening the day trading to the south of par on a modest near to unchanged softer note. The markets dropped lower early in the day to set a new low before finding support to recover, with underlying buying support and minimal selling pressure. During the mid-morning session, the markets pulled back from the earlier highs. As the afternoon progressed, the London market gained support to trend firmer and make gains while the New York market continued a likewise firmer path, gaining support as the day progressed. The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged firmer note at the close. The New York market held firm for the remainder of the session, finding renewed support towards the close. The market hit a ceiling late in the day to limit the gains to see the New York market settle on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged positive note, with 26.92% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 62.96% of earlier gains of the day on the intact. This follow through firmer close for the markets, with the London market settling on a near to unchanged firmer note at the close and the New York market settling on a firmer note, with most of the earlier gains intact, might see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: