Market Reports

Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 64% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 15^th July 2026.  The harvest this year is at a slower pace, when compared to the five-year average that is reported at 70%.  Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 48.42 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of around 21.59 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, that is anticipated to come in at 25.70 million bags and approximately 26.83 million bags of arabica coffee harvested thus far, of a total estimated by Safras & Mercado to come in at 49.95 million bags.

In other coffee international trade news, it was confirmed yesterday that Brazilian manufactured soluble instant coffee will be exempt from the new 25% general tariff on Brazilian imports. Brazil instant coffee had previously remained the only segment of Brazil’s coffee sector still subject to US import duties, despite the removal of tariffs for the imports of Brazil green coffee announced late last year.

According to the Brazilian coffee exporters association Cecafé, the exemption facilitates the return to regular shipments valued between 2 billion to 2.50 billion US Dollars in Brazilian soluble coffee exports to the United States each year. Brazil’s Soluble Coffee Industry Association ABICS reported that exports of Brazilian instant coffee to the US declined by almost 30% during 2025 as the industry contended with the additional tariffs. The exemption follows extensive engagement between Cecafé, ABICS and the US National Coffee Association NCA, who argued that the tariffs would disrupt supply chains, increase costs for businesses and ultimately lead to higher prices for US consumers.

This decision is therefore expected to support trade flows between the world’s largest coffee producer and one of its most important export markets.  Demand in such markets have proven to be rapidly flexible in line with learned sourcing and an environment of altered trade agreements as well as the competitive consumer market and as such brands within USA would not be readily prepared to wait out tariff negotiations.  The question may now be whether Brazil’s ordinarily consistent quality and scale of export soluble market will see a return to claw back some of the USA market share that has undoubtedly already shifted elsewhere for supply. This to likely have benefitted other competitor soluble producer origin countries, or possibly a return to local USA manufacturers of soluble coffee products.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 35 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 334,254 bags, with 72,47% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 242,230 and the remaining 27,53% being held in the USA at a total 92,024 bags. Of this, a total 10,288 or 3.08% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29,84% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 99,742 bags and 17.72% from Peru at a total 59,232 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading, a signal for the speculative sector of the futures markets of an underlying, point-in-time, consumer market arabica squeeze.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 140.37 Usc/Lb. This equates to 44.90% price discount for London robusta coffee.  This wide arbitrage between arabica and robusta coffee reflects the prevailing availability of robusta coffee versus the tighter arabica market and pushes attractively priced robusta coffee to the foreground.

It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, the US Dollar strengthened on the day, traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies, while investors remained cautious around inflation and potential for interest rate hikes to come, as renewed tensions in the middle east led to firmer oil prices this week. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.347 Sterling, at 1.145 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.099 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on softer notes respectively, with the markets continuing to trade in a range for the remainder of the early morning session. Both the London and New York markets gained support early to briefly set a new high for the day in the morning session.

This support was short lived with the markets encountered speculative selling pressure in comparatively muted volumes. Both the London and the New York markets encountered sustained selling pressure during the morning session, extending losses for the day and maintaining a bearish trajectory. As the afternoon progressed, the US Dollar firmed, adding further weight to the markets. Despite the downward pressure, buying support came to the fore during the early afternoon session to see the markets marginally recover some of the earlier losses albeit only briefly, as a lack of support at the top saw the markets drop back and into a softer path for the remainder of the day. The day overall mostly technical trade and with limited fresh news to guide direction.  The Brazil Real has traded in a relatively flat range thus far this week, Brazil weather is now conducive to continuation of the arabica harvest and while northern hemisphere main consumer markets are now in the full throes of an exceedingly warm summer, holiday month. Both markets recovered marginally from the day’s lows but ultimately settled near the bottom of the day’s range, ending the session on a negative note.

The London and New York market ended the day on a negative note, with 84.44% of the earlier losses of the day intact on the London market, while 87.07% of earlier losses of the day on the New York market remained intact. This softer close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day, as the markets sustained a large degree of selling pressure, might lead one to think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: