Market Reports

As the past seasonal year is finalised and the new crop harvest underway, coffee news remains focused on Brazil, the single largest coffee producer country, and second largest consumer nation.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé, have reported that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of June, the last export month in the Brazil July to June coffee year, registered at 14.78% larger than the same month last year, to total 2.64 million bags.  This number made up of 2.04 million bags of arabica coffee up 9.86% from the same month last year and 633,478 bags of Conilon robusta coffee up 32.99% from the same month last year.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the full July 2025 to June 2026 coffee year, to be lower at 16.60% overall, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 34.51 million bags.

The Brazil July 2025 to June 2026 exports are made up of 29.48 million bags of arabica coffee which is 15.31% lower year on year, from the same time last year.  The Brazil Conilon robusta exports similarly lower year on year for the 2025/26 season, at a total 5.51 million bags or 16.13% below that of the comparative year 2024/25. This 2025/26 year was a bumper record production year for Conilon robusta, much of this coffee absorbed by the local domestic market, as well as value addition within the country. The value added, and soluble sector export statistics are reported over the same twelve months to be 4.24 million bags in green bean equivalent, a 0.72% increase when compared the previous coffee year.

Although lower year on year, the export capacity from Brazil for Conilon robusta is a result of the expansive increase in Brazil robusta areas through a decade that has seen this crop increase from 18 million bags in 2014/15 coffee year, to an estimated record 27 million bags in the 2025/26 coffee year.  The decline in exports year on year accommodates the ability of the Brazil local industry to absorb and drive Conilon internal demand, and in 2025/26 an overlap of improved production and availability from Vietnam through the first half of 2026.  While there is more flexibility in roasters blends, forced to some extent by the shortfall of climatically induced consecutive lower production years in 2023/24 and 2024/25 in largest robusta exporter Vietnam, the largest importing coffee consumer block, Europe, traditionally leans toward Vietnam robusta supply, a factor that has begun to shift as production levels of Conilon robusta continue to grow.

The highest level of coffee exports reported from Brazil, remains the 2023/24 year, at 43.67 million bags. While the record bumper Brazil crop production year was 2020/21, which was reported at 72 million bags production resulted in 41.69 million bags coffee exported of which 88% was arabica coffee in that year.

When one explores the export performance of Brazil, the dominant ratio of Brazil arabica exports to consumer markets has in the past years given way to an increase in exports of Conilon from 88:12 arabica to Conilon robusta in 2020/21, and year on year 92:8 in 2021/22, 95:5 in 2022/23, 81:19 in 2023/24, 84:16 in 2024/25 and 85:15 in 2025/26.

In the not-too-distant past, carryover stocks held within Brazil would be somewhere in the region of 6 million bags of mostly arabica coffee, to cover two to three months of export equivalent.  This has pivoted over time with factors such as the futures market inversion and higher interest rate and storage costs as well as lower years of production in 2021/22 and 2022/23, being contributory factors.  The excellent value in the coffee futures markets that have depleted origin stocks in a tight supply and high demand scenario has led to carryover stocks from 2025/26 in Brazil to be estimated by the USDA at a very low 485,000 bags heading into the 2026/27 coffee year.  Consumption in the formal supermarket retail and HORECA sector relatively well reported while on farm and informal market consumption less so, is pegged at a steady range of around 22.50 million bags per annum.

With the July 2025 to June 2026 coffee year now complete, and the new July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year harvest in full sway, the prospects for the coming potential record median 51.50 million bag Brazil arabica coffee crop has already been absorbed in terms of sentiment on the futures markets.  The rain influenced harvest delays in June have brought about a squeeze on both physical export shipment supply, evident in prompt month volatile moves in New York, in line with the prevailing low inventory levels in consumer countries. While the physical supply picture looks a little easier for the months ahead as more of this coffee is bound to be released for export shipment, the focus on weather and the prospects for another successful crop to form in the Brazil arabica areas is already a topic of discussion in both commercial and speculative circles.

This, while the likelihood of a contango coffee futures market to come, which was a common view only a few weeks ago in line with the anticipated large Brazil crop underway, is not so gently slipping away from earlier anticipated targets, and conversely, the spread between the prompt month and the rest of the board in New York, widens.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 5,363 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 334,289 bags, with 72,46% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 242,230 and the remaining 27,54% being held in the USA at a total 92,059 bags. Of this, a total 10,288 or 3.08% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29,85% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 99,777 bags and 17.72% from Peru at a total 59,232 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 149.34 Usc/Lb. This equates to 45.70% price discount for London robusta coffee.  This wide arbitrage pushes attractively priced robusta coffee to the foreground.

It was a mixed day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, following the release of Producer Price Index data that noted an unexpected fall in June following a very modest increase in May. The US Dollar lost some ground against a basket of other major currencies, and the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East has fuelled concerns on energy prices, worldwide inflation, and economic sentiment surrounding potential alterations in fiscal policy and interest rates. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Sugar, Gold, Silver and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.354 Sterling, at 1.147 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.080 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading on a near to unchanged modest softer note, while the New York market opened the day trading to the north of par on a firmer note from the outset. The New York and London markets both gained support early to trend firmer, before briefly encountering a degree of selling pressure to drop back from the early highs. The selling pressure was short lived as the markets quickly found support at the day’s lows to recover and trade into firmer territory for the remainder of the session. As the afternoon progressed, the firmer action in both markets continued to see the London market set a positive trend for the day while the New York market rallied to set a new high for the day’s session. The New York market dropped back the high during the later afternoon session, pressured lower by some degree of selling through to the close. The New York market settled for the day on a near to unchanged firmer note, back from the ays highs. The London market followed suit to likewise set a new high for the day late in the session before encountering a sustained degree of selling pressure to drop back and settle on a positive note at the close, with half of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London and New York market ended the day on a positive note, with 51.66% of the earlier gains of the day intact on the London market, while 6.31% of earlier gains of the day on the New York market remained intact. This firmer close for both markets, albeit that the New York market dropped back from the earlier highs of the day to settle on a modest near to unchanged note, might indicate some degree of direction to possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: