Market Reports

While Brazil, Peru, Indonesia, Uganda and smaller producers in East and Central Africa are harvesting now to supply the 2026/27 coffee year.  The main harvest from Colombia, Central America, Mexico and Vietnam are all set to seasonally start harvest in the fourth quarter of the year.  These latter coffee countries have a collective export potential of around 28 million bags arabica coffee, along with 34 million bags robusta coffee.

The National Coffee Growers Federation of Colombia have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first nine months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year are thus far 19.39% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 8.44 million bags.   The slower release of coffee from the mitaca harvest a contributing factor to the lower exports over the time, due to adverse weather conditions experienced earlier in the year.

The export season for Mexico and Central America coffee is ending meanwhile, and for these mainly washed arabica quality producer countries only two months left of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year.   These mainly washed arabica coffee producer countries are already very well sold.  The new crop to come toward the end of this year from this largest quality washed producer bloc has thus far experienced what would be considered a relatively normal climatic environment through early development, ahead of the new crop harvests for the October 2026 to September 2027 seasonal export year to come, noting that the development of the anticipated El Nino weather phenomenon will be closely monitored. Cumulatively Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and El Salvador are anticipated to have a potential to reach 17.00 million bags.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,922 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 339,652 bags, with 71.90% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 244,218 and the remaining 28.10% being held in the USA at a total 95,434 bags. Of this, a total 10,288 or 3.03% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 30.37% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 103,152 bags and 17.44% from Peru at a total 59,232 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 151.51 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.46% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, following newly released macro-economic data that indicates inflation in the US that was softer than expected during the month of June, this potentially weighing on investment outlook of monetary policy. The London Robusta Coffee, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.3416 Sterling, at 1.1433 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.0711 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading in modest firmer territory, while the New York market started the day on a near to unchanged softer note. Both markets quickly gained support to trend in a firmer direction and set a new high for the morning. As the afternoon progressed, the firmer action in both markets continued to see the New York market set a ceiling for the day while the London market dropped back from the earlier highs to trend back towards par and settle into a range. The New York market encountered a degree of selling pressure late in the day to drop through par and into negative territory. The London market settled on a modest near to unchanged firmer note at the close while the New York market set a new low for the day late in the session to settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 7.53% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on an opposite negative note with 54.54% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the New York market settling on a softer note recovering half of the earlier losses of the day and the London market settling on a modest near to unchanged firmer note, might see the markets set for little better than a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: