Market Reports

The International Coffee Organisation, ICO, have come forth with their June 2026 monthly report to indicate that the global coffee exports for the month of May 2026 were 3.19% lower than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 12.37 million bags. This has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first eight months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 0.13% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a reported total 94.82 million bags.

The report reflects a larger export performance from South America during May, which registered an 4.30% increase in exports to consumer markets, when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 4.29 million bags through to the end of May.  This is the first monthly increase in 18 months, driven predominantly by Brazil whose exports registered 3.13 million bags or 4.20% higher during May 2026.

The report confirms an increase in exports from Asia, as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered 0.40% higher in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 4.32 million bags, largely led by an increase in exports of 33.70% from India during May 2026, at 740,000 bags, while Indonesia and Vietnam in contrast reported a 15.90% and 3.60% decrease in exports respectively during May.

The ICO report similarly includes within the total global exports, the export figures from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, to report for May that exports were 3.80% lower than the same period in the previous year to total 2.14 million bags, largely led by Nicaragua whose exports were 33.90% lower year on year at a total of 260,000 bags.

Within the ICO report, exports posted a decrease by 24.10% year on year from Africa to a total 1.63 million bags during the month of May.  The decrease in export performance contributed in large part by Ethiopia and Uganda whose exports were down by a combined 26% year on year at a total of 1.31 million bags.

Weather conditions in Brazil meanwhile remain a point of focus for market players, with temperatures forecast to remain somewhere in the mid to low teens in degrees Celsius, for the coming week, with indications of light very isolated rainfall across the vast coffee growing regions. Historically the cold season for Brazil is foreseen to remain in place until the middle of August.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,695 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 342,574 bags, with 71.85% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 246,136 and the remaining 28.15% being held in the USA at a total 96,438 bags. Of this, a total 10,288 or 3.00% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 30.17% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 103,370 bags and 17.29% from Peru at a total 59,232 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 0 bags pending grading.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 156.09 Usc/Lb. This equates to 47.30% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of an address by the US Federal Reserve Chair later today on monetary policy which may provide further speculative guidance on interest rate trajectory. Geopolitical worries continue to fuel inflation fears. The Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.336 Sterling, at 1.139 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.137 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on a modest near to unchanged softer note. The New York market started the day trading on a firmer note. The London market gained support earlier in the day to set a new high for the session. The early support in both the New York and London markets was short lived with both markets dropping back from their earlier highs to trade below par and into softer territory. As the afternoon progressed, both markets set a new low for the day before the selling pressure began to wane. The markets recovered from the lows to find support and trend towards par. The London market closed on a modest negative note with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market settled on a likewise softer note albeit above the lows of the day.

The London market ended the day on negative note, with 21.69% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 33.33% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through softer close for the markets, albeit  that both the New York and the London markets recovered from the lows of the day to settle on softer notes at the close with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact. One might think that the markets are due for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: