Market Reports

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 201.15% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 30^th June 2026:  to register a net long position of 8,149 lots, which is the equivalent of 2,310,205 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased following the period firmer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 37,458 Lots or the equivalent of 10,619,177 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 26.11% over the same week of trade.

In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market, the shorter term in nature Managed Money Fund increased their net-long position by 51.57% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 30^th June 2026; to register a new long position at 21,223 Lots. The longer term in nature, the Index Fund sector of this market increased their net-long position by 7.22% within the market, to register a new net-long position of 29,251 Lots on the day.

The coffee futures markets experienced an explosive rally yesterday, with speculative buying and widespread short covering driving one of the strongest single-day upward moves in recent history. The New York September 2026 arabica contract surged by 16.18%, marking its fourth-largest daily percentage gain on record since the ICE began reporting price movements, reaching a high on the day on 357.00 Usc/Lb, which the highest level seen since October last year, while the London September 2026 Robusta position increased by 8.83% to settle at US$ 4,044.00 per Mt. The Futures markets continue to trade in a very firm bullish trend, reaching the upper end of the trading range seen over the last 12 months.

The sharp move may have been fueled by growing concerns over the development of a potential super El Niño event, with investors factoring and reevaluating weather risk across the soft commodity basket. Market participants remain increasingly focused on the possibility of hotter and drier conditions across Southeast Asia, while a continuation of rainfall in Brazil could further delay harvesting and have a potential impact on crop quality. The speculative rally was amplified as funds were seen to continue to add to their long positions and trade houses holding short futures positions needed to buy back contracts to meet rising margin requirements, resulting in exceptionally high trading volumes, reaching 47,909 lots against the prompt position in New York on the day. While the move appears to have been driven more by the speculative sector rather than a change in fundamentals, the ongoing weather uncertainty is expected to keep coffee markets highly volatile in the weeks ahead.  This bullish run supported by the still prevalent tight inventory position in consumer markets and a vacuum of producer selling activity, which in volume terms and for the moment, is predominantly in Brazilian hands.

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of June, from this largest washed arabica coffee producer and exporter, registered 141,000, bags or 15.51% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,010,000 bags.  The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first nine months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 2,025,000 bags or 18.39% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 8,987,000 bags.

In the same report, the National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia post the country’s coffee exports for the month of June to be 36,000 bags or 3.31% lower than the same month last year, at a total 1,045,000 bags. The country’s cumulative coffee exports for first nine months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, registered at 2,030,000 bags or 19.39% lower over the same period in the previous coffee year, to a total of 8,438,000 bags.

One might comment that the ongoing mitaca harvest in Colombia is progressing at a slower pace than was initially expected, due to the residual effects of unseasonal rainfall experienced earlier in the year. Furthermore, selling activity within the interior continues to be measured leading to a rise in differentials from this larges washed arabica coffee producer.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 6,262 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 366,756 bags, with 73.12% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 268,173 and the remaining 26.88% being held in the USA at a total 98,583 bags. Of this, a total 10,288 or 2.81% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.44% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 107,970 bags and 16.15% from Peru at a total 59,232 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 275 bags pending grading, with 100% from Honduras.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 166.51 Usc/Lb. This equates to 47.58% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was an overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, following newly released US economic data that showed softer than expected growth in the jobs sector while a Reuters poll indicates a 54% chance of an interest rate hike in September. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.339 Sterling, at 1.144 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.126 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets opened the day on a positive note, to see the markets continue to trade in firm territory throughout the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. The New York market fell back off the highs of the morning for a brief period before finding support during the late morning session, to trade firmer. The London market continued to trade in positive territory, making gains throughout the session. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers returned to the floor in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed.  The upward moment in New York by now an almost self-fulfilling prophecy as hedge lifting action in a market void of volume on the sell side, saw the market continue the upward momentum before being capped late in the day, to see the market settle on a firm note at the close with most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market followed suit to also settle on a firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on positive note, with 83.25% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise very positive note with 87.37% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day in a heavy volume day.  With the speculative sector at the helm and aggressive fund buying at play, the markets might be in for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: