Market Reports

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 15.80% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees. This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 17.80% of the new crop. This means a total of 1.07 million bags of the expected 6.80 million bags to be received by Cooxupe has been harvested so far. Cooxupe expects coffee exports to be 11.48% larger than the previous year, during this current season when compared to the last.

Weather forecasters are predicting sporadic rainfall to come to the fore across the vast coffee growing regions, mainly concentrated in the Southeastern regions of Minas Gerais, with indications that this sporadic rainfall may bring with it cooler temperatures although still within the low twenties in degrees Celsius and considered seasonally normal for this time of year. While the rainfall may cause some temporary minimal interruptions to harvesting and drying activities, the potential impact is expected to be very limited given the highly mechanised and automated nature of Brazil’s coffee processing and drying infrastructure. The weather conditions for Brazil will continue to play an influential role in market direction. The Brazilian Real has appreciated by 6.70% since the beginning of the year. This traditionally discourages increased selling activity within Brazil, as returns to producers are lower in Real terms. A factor that may influence direction within the coffee futures markets, albeit in the short term.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange registered a decrease by 786 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 396,171 bags, with 72.55% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 287,422 and the remaining 27.45% being held in the USA at a total 108,749 bags. Of this, a total 10,455 or 2.64% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.06% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 115,146 bags and 15.50% from Peru at a total 61,407 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 1,375 bags pending grading, with 100% from Honduras.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 107.61 Usc/Lb. This equates to 39.58% price discount for London robusta coffee.

The New York arabica coffee market shall be closed tomorrow in observance of the Juneteenth Federal Holiday, and the London Robusta coffee market will be trading solo for the day.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, following news that the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady during their monetary policy meeting yesterday while noting that one could expect interest rate hikes to follow later in the year given the inflationary environment. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.331 Sterling, at 1.152 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.105 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day on a modest near to unchanged softer note yesterday, followed by New York on a softer track from the outset. The momentum in London was capped early in the session, to see the London market drop back and track gradually lower, as the early morning progressed. The New York market recovered from the early lows to trend firmer and set a high for the day during the early session before encountering resistance to drop back and trade in softer territory for the remainder of the morning session.  The activity in both markets was modest as the morning progressed with New York tracking lower by midday, with the London market following suit to set a new low for the day. As the afternoon progressed both the London and New York markets recovered from the lows of the morning to trend back towards par. The London market traded through par, gaining support as the day progressed albeit in modest volumes. The New York market trended back towards par and into firmer territory. This support was short lived as sellers returned to the floor late in the day to see the New York market drop back below par and settle on a negative note at the close, with first notice day in the prompt month due on Monday, while the London market was seen to drop back from the earlier highs and settle on a firmer note at the close, with only some of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note, with 39.34% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise modest near to unchanged negative note with 14.17% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a modest firmer note at the close and the New York market recovering most of the earlier losses of the day to settle on a soft note at the close, might see the markets set for a hesitant start to early trade, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: