Market Reports

The coffee futures markets are influenced by the speculative sector within a seasonally volatile winter weather period. New York market has recovered 19.80% in value since the beginning of June. The rain delays new crop harvest in Brazil at a slower rate than in previous years along with evidence of little to no coffee available in Central America where next harvest season begins in fourth quarter of 2026.

The mid-year mitaca crop from Colombia along with the new crop harvest to come from Peru with equal delays and internal speculation with differential increases reflected as forward commitment shorts are forced to participate. An accumulation of factors and seasonal timing within a still tight and low consumer inventory conditions of the washed arabica supply segment, reflected in the steeply inverted futures market.

Looking ahead, the record 50 million bag mostly natural arabica harvest is underway and is bound to bring some relief to pipeline in the next couple of months, to improve coffee flow from Brazil. Perhaps more reluctantly from the lower mid-year harvest, to come Colombia. The mid-year coffee harvests are likely to be headed immediately toward consumer roasters, however, as the New York market inversion provides little incentive for consumer trade and industry to hold stocks, even as logistical challenges and bottlenecks continue to impact timely arrivals of these coffees to consumer markets, where visible coffee stocks remain historically low.

The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported preliminary data that the country’s coffee exports for the month of June were 17.60% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 890,000 bags. IHCAFE have reported that cumulative exports for the first nine months of the current coffee export year are 25.89% higher than the previous year at a total of 6.66 million bags. The frontloaded higher exports recorded during the first nine months of the current coffee export year, evident when compared to the same period in the previous year. in comparison to the be due to the slower start to the 2024/25 coffee export year.  The start of the 2025/26 export season, influenced by prevailing USA tariff conditions versus Brazil in the fourth quarter of 2025, is believed to have created the conditions for the prevailing and unusual well sold position for this largest Central American producer and exporter of washed arabica coffee.

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 24.90% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 28^th June. This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 31.40% of the new crop, which one might expect given that Cooxupe expects to receive 1 million bags more this current season when compared to last year. This means a total of 1.69 million bags of the expected 6.80 million bags to be received by Cooxupe has been harvested so far.

The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of June have registered 44.54% higher than the same month in the previous year, at 2,866,667 bags. The cumulative export performance for the first nine months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year in Vietnam the largest producer and exporter of robusta coffee to consumer markets, is reported to be 4,333,334 bags or 22.16% higher than the same period in the previous year, to cumulative nine-month total at 23,883,334 bags.

The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time reported the country’s coffee revenue value for the first six months of 2026, is reported at 14.40% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of approximately 4.78 billion US Dollars.

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of May were 85,871 bags or 22.18% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 301,207 bags. The island nation’s cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first two months of the current April 2026 to March 2027 coffee year are reported to be 194,562 bags or 31.03% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 432,254 bags.

These new crop export figures reflect lower year on year as there has been a slight delay to export shipments due to weather conditions experienced during harvest and one could expect these figures to pick up pace in the months ahead. The new Indonesia April 2026 to March 2027 coffee export year, is forecast to reach an overall 11.38 million bags, or 8.01% lower than the previous coffee year. The production figures for the 2026/27 coffee year are forecast to be made up of 10 million bags robusta coffee, down 9.05% from the previous year and 1.38 million bags arabica Coffee, up 0.75% from the previous year.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,386 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 375,079 bags, with 72.92% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 273,496 and the remaining 27.08% being held in the USA at a total 101,583 bags. Of this, a total 10,455 or 2.79% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.52% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 110,720 bags and 15.84% from Peru at a total 59,407 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 275 bags pending grading, with 100% from Honduras.

The active and influential USA based markets will be closed for the day tomorrow, in observation of the country’s Independence Day holiday on Saturday 4^th July.   One might anticipate that with the USA markets not trading, that it could bring with it a relatively subdued day of trade for the London coffee market that is due to trade solo for the day tomorrow.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 138.85 Usc/Lb. This equates to 44.80% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was an overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, following newly released US economic data that showed softer than expected growth in the jobs sector while markets await further economic data to be released later today which may provide cues on inflation. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.329 Sterling, at 1.139 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.206 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading in modest firmer territory before quickly gaining support to trade in positive territory, while the New York market opened on a steady firm note. The volume in both New York and London market picked up steam during the early session, in limited speculative seller participation.  As the afternoon progressed the markets steadily continued to make gains, bringing fresh volume to New York to accentuate the moves for the session.  The New York and London markets registered significant gains through the late afternoon session. The New York market continued upward momentum, before being capped very late in the day, to see the market drop back and settle on a firm note at the close, with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market held the gains established to settle on a very firm note at the close, near to the highs of the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 91.87% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise very positive note with 67.42% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through very firm close, while the underlying fundamentals may for the most part, already be absorbed by the markets, the speculative sector, macroeconomics and currency fluctuations continue to add to the volatility within the markets, in a follow through heavy volume day, with the markets possibly due for a follow through steady buoyant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: