Market Reports

Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 44% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 28th June 2026. The harvest this year is at a slower pace, when compared to the same time last year, which was reported at 51%. Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 33.29 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of around 16.81 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, that is anticipated to come in at 25.70 million bags and approximately 16.48 million bags of arabica coffee harvested thus far, of a total estimated by Safras & Mercado to come in at 49.95 million bags.

Weather conditions are reported to remain conducive, with temperatures predicted to be mild and with no anticipated unusually low temperatures to the Brazil southeastern coffee regions at this stage. Historically the most conducive conditions for low temperatures in winter cold weather in the Brazil coffee districts is for dry low humidity weather and clear nights around full moon. The mid-winter next full moon is due on 29th July, and regular independent reports of temperate weather in the forecast for the coming week.

The mainstream northern hemisphere coffee consumer markets are in their slower summer holiday season, which may contribute to a somewhat lacklustre physical coffee trade in the weeks ahead. In particular, the American and European summer holidays will soon be in full swing. With seasonal reduced market participation many roasters continue to operate on a hand-to-mouth basis, while added to uncertainties of coffee futures market volatility and limited near-term demand visibility, is the addition of current macro-economic trends and regulation. This subdued buying interest is likely to set the tone for the next couple of months to come, in tandem with the flow of coffee to come from the leading and largest coffee producer country and second largest coffee consumer nation, Brazil, that is currently is focused on the new July 2026 to June 2027 harvest and what is forecast ahead of time to be a record arabica, and good size Conilon robusta intake when compared to their 2025/26 coffee year.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,061 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 373,018 bags, with 72.91% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 271,961 and the remaining 27.09% being held in the USA at a total 101,057 bags. Of this, a total 10,288 or 2.76% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.70% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 110,771 bags and 15.93% from Peru at a total 59,407 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 275 bags pending grading, with 100% from Honduras.

The active and influential USA markets are closed for the day today, in observation of the country’s Independence Day holiday, which will see the London market trading solo for the day.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 129.61 Usc/Lb. This equates to 43.03% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, in a subdued session, ahead of the Independence Day holiday in the USA today, which will see most of the commodity markets closed for the day. The London Robusta Coffee, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.335 Sterling, at 1.143 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.206 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day on a modest firmer note yesterday, followed by New York on very firm track from the outset. The upward momentum in London was capped early in the session, to see the London market drop back and track gradually lower, as the early morning progressed. The New York market continued to trade in firmer positive territory for the remainder of the morning session. The activity in both markets was good to begin the day with New York setting a new high for the day to encounter resistance and track lower by midday, with the London market following suit to drop back from the day’s highs. As the afternoon progressed the London market traded in positive territory albeit back from the days highs to settle in a modest range towards the close, with the market settling on a modest near to unchanged firmer note at the close. The New York market continued on a softer path, attracting selling pressure to the close, with the market settling on a softer note at the close with most of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 8.05% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note with 91.10% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a modest firmer note at the close and the New York market settling near to the days lows with most of the earlier losses of the day intact, might see the London market trading solo for the day, set for a hesitant start to early trade, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: