Market Reports

Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, is pegged to have produced around 31 million bags robusta coffee during the October 2025 to September 2026 crop year, representing a 13.55% increase compared with the previous season. The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the first eight months of the current 2025/26 coffee are 25.22% higher than the same period in the previous year, to cumulative total 21.01 bags. Looking ahead, production for the 2026/27 crop, which will begin harvesting towards the end of this year, is forecast at approximately 29.50 million bags robusta coffee. Of this volume, Vietnam is expected to export around 25.50 million bags of green coffee, accounting for an estimated 49.5% of global robusta exports.

The market has largely absorbed expectations surrounding Brazil’s July 2026 to June 2027 coffee crop, with the median estimate placing Brazil’s conilon robusta production at 25.50 million bags from the harvest that is nearing completion. Brazil’s domestic market remains the primary destination for conilon robusta, with annual consumption estimated at approximately 22 million bags. The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé, have reported that the country’s conilon coffee exports for the first eleven months of the current July 2025 to June 2026 Brazil coffee year to be 4.39 million bags or 27.99% lower year on year. Conilon exports from Brazil represent roughly 8.50% of global robusta exports.

Robusta coffees from Indonesia will shortly begin to flow to consumer markets, while robusta exports from Uganda are slightly delayed due to weather conditions and will begin to pick up pace during the weeks ahead.  Indonesia’s robusta production for the April 2026 to March 2027 coffee year is forecast at 10.10 million bags, with exports expected to reach approximately 7 million bags, equivalent to around 15% of global robusta exports. The Indonesian government trade data has reported that the robusta coffee exports for the month of April were 108,692 bags or 45.33% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 131,046 bags. This marks the first month of the new April 2026 to March 2027 coffee export year and one might expect updated figures to be reported in the weeks ahead as exports begin to pick up pace from the ongoing harvest.

Uganda, Africa’s largest robusta producer, is projected to produce 6.10 million bags during the October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year. Robusta exports are expected to total approximately 6.85 million bags, accounting for around 14.5% of global robusta exports. The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority, UCDA, have reported that their country’s cumulative robusta exports for the first eight months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year are registered at 3.98 million bags.

Within these four largest robusta producing countries, domestic coffee industries are becoming increasingly important. Indonesia has a well-established value-added sector, while Brazil and Vietnam continue to expand their soluble coffee, roast and ground industries, driving steady growth in domestic consumption alongside exports of higher-value finished products. Over time, this trend could gradually reduce the proportion of green coffee available for export. Uganda, by comparison, remains an underdeveloped domestic coffee market. Internal consumption is estimated at around 330,000 bags, or roughly 5% of production, highlighting considerable potential for future growth in value addition and local coffee consumption.

Market participants are also closely monitoring the increasing likelihood of an El Niño weather event. El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions across Southeast Asia, India, Vietnam, and parts of Brazil, while increasing rainfall across sections of East Africa. The strong 2015/16 El Niño resulted in severe heat and moisture stress across Vietnam and Indonesia during a critical stage of robusta crop development, reducing production. Brazil also experienced irregular rainfall during the southern hemisphere spring, resulting in less favourable flowering conditions. Although the probability of El Niño developing has increased in recent forecasts, there is still time before any significant impacts become apparent. Market participants will continue to monitor weather developments closely throughout the year to assess any potential effect on global robusta production. Ultimately, the extent of any impact will depend not only on whether El Niño materialises, but also on its timing, duration, and overall intensity.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 3,069 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 377,465 bags, with 72.87% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 275,072 and the remaining 27.13% being held in the USA at a total 102,393 bags. Of this, a total 10,455 or 2.77% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.40% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 110,995 bags and 15.80% from Peru at a total 59,657 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 275 bags pending grading, with 100% from Honduras.

The active and influential USA based markets will be closed for the day on Friday this week, in observation of the country’s Independence Day holiday observed on Saturday 4^th July.   One might anticipate that with the USA markets not trading, that it could bring with it a relatively subdued day of trade for the London coffee market that is due to trade solo on the day.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 130.53 Usc/Lb. This equates to 44.03% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as inflation readings in the US remain higher than the Federal Reserve’s target level, leading investors to think that interest rates will be kept high for a prolonged period of time. The Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.324 Sterling, at 1.141 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.160 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets opened the day trading to the north of par from the outset. Both markets quickly made gains with support to trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed, in a void of selling activity.  The upward moment in New York in a market continued through to the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered a slight degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a very firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back and settle on a firm note, with more than half of the days gains intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 52.22% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise very positive note with 74.75% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory albeit that the markets dropped back from the day’s highs late the session, in a heavy volume day.  With the speculative sector at the helm and technical moves in play, the markets might be in for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: