Market Reports

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative switch their net short position within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 23^rd June 2026:  to register an oscillation from a short to now a new, net long position of 2,706 lots, which is the equivalent of 767,139 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 29,780 Lots or the equivalent of 8,442,498 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 27.15% over the same week of trade.

In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market, the shorter term in nature Managed Money Fund increased their net-long position by 75.60% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 23^rd June 2026; to register a new long position at 14,002 Lots. The longer term in nature, the Index Fund sector of this market increased their net-long position by 2.56% within the market, to register a new net-long position of 27,282 Lots on the day.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 32.78% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 23^rd June 2026: to register a new net long position of 34,560 Lots which is the equivalent of 5,760,000 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally increased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed.

Colombia, the world’s largest producer of high-quality washed arabica coffee with two crops annually, is currently harvesting its midyear mitaca crop. The mitaca harvest has progressed more slowly than expected, as residual effects of unseasonal rainfall weigh in on the already measured pace of seller activity within the interior. This development has supported internal sentiment and led to a rapid rise in translated differentials from this largest washed arabica coffee producer.

Trade activity across the Central American washed arabica producing bloc has slowed dramatically compared to the same period last year, with most coffees harvested during the first four to five months of the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, front loaded to some extent in allocations to the USA markets in response to the higher tariff situation of late 2025. The export reports from these countries reporting increased year on year comparative figures, however visibility of these washed arabica coffee to consumer markets remains low, suggesting that a sizeable share of shipments has either been committed directly to roasters or is still working its way through the disrupted supply chain.

The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority ECTA have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the fiscal year that will end on the 7^th. July 2026 is reported at a total of 7.83 million bags. This, with the mostly informal and opaque internal consumption estimated to be somewhere between 3 to 4 million bags per annum, notable. The report further indicates that coffee exports have generated US$ 3 billion in revenue. The report further illustrates major export destinations listed as Germany and Japan. Markets that are signalling increases in coffee consumption growth, such as China and Middle East, are registered as key export destinations for Ethiopia.  The median independent production forecasts have meanwhile estimated Ethiopia could produce around 8.50 million bags of coffee during the coming 2026/27 coffee seasonal year.

With first notice day in prompt month hurdled, the tightness of spot coffee within consumer markets continues to reflect in the backwardation and widening spread between the front months.  The Brazil harvest continues and is anticipated to increase in pace into July. This, following the unseasonal rains earlier in June that have led to harvesting and processing delays within sectors of the vast arabica production areas.  This with reports coming through from the interior that the inclement weather may have reduced the opportunity for semi-washed, as well fine cup, along with reports of smaller bean outturn to add to the initial assessments.  The internal position of farmers and local motivation to increase selling activity is less influenced by the pressure of bountiful harvest, as has been the case in similar circumstances in past years. While there is no doubt in the forward outlook; and with unforeseen weather anomalies set aside; that there will be a large, if not record, natural arabica crop to come to the markets, for the moment internal measured selling activity prevails.

Thus, the focus of the coffee industry worldwide continues to be the anticipated success of the prevailing Brazil natural arabica harvest that forecast ahead of harvest within the region of 50 million bags.  In light of consecutive deficit global coffee production years, this crop is necessary to fuel coffee exports to both consumer, as well as other producer import markets and to boost the low carry over in local as well as consumer country inventories.  While the harvest is set to peak in July, coffee availability and flow is not as significant as many would have anticipated by this time in the seasonal year.  This, while weather signals through the current Brazilian winter, and later in the year, spring weather to come, are in focus.

It is full moon across the Brazil coffee belt tonight, and there is little to indicate an overly cool weather development across the expansive regions.  The weather forecasts indicate lows in the teens in Celsius for the next fortnight.  The next full moon is due on 29^th July, which will be deep into the Brazilian winter season.

The firmer price development within commodity futures markets of the past week, however, is more likely the now apparent manifestation of a strong El Nino phenomenon that is showing in the widely reported increase in ocean current temperatures in the Pacific.

The active and influential USA based markets will be closed for the day on Friday this week, in observation of the country’s Independence Day holiday observed on Saturday 4^th July.   One might anticipate that with the USA markets not trading, that it could bring with it a relatively subdued day of trade for the London coffee market that is due to trade solo on the day.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 3,107 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 382,084 bags, with 72.51% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 277,047 and the remaining 27.49% being held in the USA at a total 105,037 bags. Of this, a total 10,455 or 2.74% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 29.32% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 112,014 bags and 15.81% from Peru at a total 60,407 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 275 bags pending grading, with 100% from Honduras.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 108.68 Usc/Lb. This equates to 39.78% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets on Friday, following a slide in the US Dollar and weakening expectations of interest rate cuts to come following better than expected inflation data. The Sugar, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.320 Sterling, at 1.138 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.170 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day on a near to unchanged modest softer note on Friday, followed by New York on a negative note at the start of the day. The direction in London was set early, to see the London market drop back and track gradually lower, as the early morning progressed. The New York market continued to trade on negative territory for the remainder of the morning session.  The activity in both markets was modest as the morning progressed with New York tracking lower by midday, with the London market following suit to set a new low for the day. As the afternoon progressed both the London and New York markets recovered from the lows of the morning to trend back towards par. The London market traded in softer territory for the remainder of the days’ session. The New York market was also seen to trade back towards par. This support continued through to the close, with the New York market trading back towards par to settle on a softer note at the close with half of the earlier losses of the day intact. The London market was seen to settle on a softer note at the close, with more than half of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 71.43% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 48.85% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This softer close for the markets, does little to inspire confidence, albeit that the markets recovered from the lows of the day during what was a choppy session, and one might think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: