Market Reports

The respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Global Agricultural Network USDA have come forth to revise their early forecast for the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee crop from Colombia, lower by 9.42%, to now total 12.50 million bags, this reduction in production primarily due to increased rainfall during the bean development phase. The report further anticipates green coffee exports from this fine washed arabica producing country to reach 11.70 million bags during the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, this figure 4.10% lower than the previous 2024/25 coffee year.

The same report has forecast the new crop to come from Colombia for the forthcoming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, at an anticipated 7.20% increase on that of the current coffee production year, at a total of 13.40 million bags. It is anticipated that Colombia will export 4.27% more than the current coffee year, during the 2026/27 coffee year, at a total of 12.20 million bags.   While the forecast for the coming year in positive in production terms, the report makes note of the potential for a El Niño weather phenomenon which may occur and impact coffee development bring with it higher temperatures and less rainfall, a factor that will be closely monitored in the months ahead.

The United States Department of Agriculture USDA Global Agricultural Information Network have revised their earlier estimate for the Costa Rican coffee arabica coffee for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year lower by 0.85%, to total 1.16 million bags. The report further estimates production to increase by 3.45% during the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, estimated at 1.20 million bags, of which the report goes on to estimate 1.05 million bags will be exported to consumer markets from the coming crop harvest.  The year-on-year carryover stocks from the current October 2025 to September 2026 crop into the new October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year are projected to be steady at an estimated 133,000 bags ahead of the new harvest to start in the latter quarter of this year.

The current export season for the main washed arabica, quality coffee producing countries; Mexico and Central America; has four months left of the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year. This washed arabica producer bloc is reported to be well sold, with limited coffees remaining available. Logistical challenges have developed throughout the coffee export year, with a limitation on vessel and equipment availability, congestion and short shipments experienced in ports from Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua resulting in shipment delays.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange with the exchange closed for the Memorial Day holiday remained unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 449,567 bags, with 73.03% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 328,334 and the remaining 26.97% being held in the USA at a total 121,233 bags. Of this, a total 11,387 or 2.53% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 27.84% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 125,145 bags and 13.72% from Peru at a total 61,682 bags. The pending grading stocks increased by 1,100 bags, registering 1,650 bags pending grading, the majority origin pending grading Honduras, adding up to 100% of the total.

The July 2026 to July 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 115.59 Usc/Lb. This equates to 42.44% price discount for London robusta coffee.

The commodity markets lacked the participation of many of the USA based markets yesterday, which were closed due to the Memorial Day holiday yesterday along with the Spring Bank Holiday in the London market yesterday, to provide no direction for the overall macro commodity index for the day. The Cocoa, Corn, Robusta Coffee and Soybean markets ended the day on Friday on a firmer note, while the Arabica Coffee, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Palladium, Platinum and Silver markets ended the day on Friday on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.348 Sterling, at 1.163 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.010 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading to the north of par on firmer notes respectively. Both markets found continued support early and registered a positive track in a firmer direction in the early morning session. The London market hit a ceiling for the early morning session early in the day, to introduce sellers at the highs, the choppy trade in New York continued in positive territory, making gains throughout the early morning session before being capped to limit the day’s gains and set a new high for the session. As the afternoon progressed, the London market continued a modest softer path, before gaining support to trend firmer for the remainder of the day’s session.  The New York market traded through par and into softer territory, to set a new low for the day. The New York market found support late in the day to recover from the day’s lows and settle on a modest softer note at the close, with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact. While the London market settled on a firmer note, albeit back from the day’s high.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 69.51% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest negative note with 38.89% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a firmer note with some of the earlier gains of the day intact, and the New York market settling on a softer note at the close near to the day’s lows, with the markets closed yesterday due to the Memorial Day Holiday in New York and the Spring Bank Holiday in London, one might think that the markets are due for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: