Market Reports

The traditionally conservative Brazil government food supply and statistics agency CONAB have come forth to revise their initial forecast for the 2026 new Brazil coffee crop 0.76% higher.  CONAB predict the Brazil 2026/27 coffee year to now total 66.70 million bags or 18% larger year on year.  CONAB has reported that this higher revision is mainly due to consistent and conducive climate during the crop development phase resulting in positive flowering in both the conilon and arabica regions.

The updated CONAB forecast, has revised the 2026 arabica coffee production 3.85% higher than the previous forecast earlier this year to now total 45.80 million bags or 28% larger than the previous coffee year while the conilon robusta production forecast has been revised 5.43% lower than the initial forecast earlier this year to now total 20.90 million bags or 0.80% larger than the previous coffee year. The CONAB forecasts are traditionally conservative, and many would therefore anticipate this forecast as an indication that the new 2026 Brazil coffee crop might reach closer to 73 million bags, in line with the forecasts from a number of independent organisations.

The same report which correlates extensive survey data and inland information gathered, assesses that the coffee yields as an average for both arabica and Conilon robusta in Brazil, will increase by 13% from the 2025 year to register 34.40 bags per hectare for the 2026 year.  Meanwhile the year has started with somewhat seasonally conducive weather for many of the main coffee districts in Brazil.  The winter months are setting in within the southern hemisphere, typically sees the focus of the coffee markets shift to the largest coffee producer and exporter, Brazil, where the arrival of cooler weather to the vast coffee growing areas in Brazil gains heightened focus.

The respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Global Agricultural Network USDA have come forth to revise their early forecast for the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee crop from Vietnam, higher by 2.92%, to now total 31.70 million bags. In the same report the USDA have forecast that the coming October 2026 to September 2027 Vietnam coffee crop that is due to start being harvested later this year, will be 2.53% larger than the current October 2025 to September 2026 crop, to total 32.50 million bags. This crop they foresee, to be made up from 31.40 million bags Robusta coffee and 1.10 million bags of Arabica coffee. In addition, there is an estimated carryover stock from the present coffee year to potentially add a very modest 689,000 bags from this largest robusta producer of coffee, into the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year.

Of this new October 2026 to September 2027 crop, the forecast is that Vietnam will export 1.20% or 300,000 bags more than the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, at an estimated 25.40 million bags of green coffee. USDA have reported that there was a 24% increase in exports during the first half of the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, when compared to the same period in the previous year, at a total of 14.20 million bags. Domestic consumption is expected to increase by 2.04% in the coming 2026/27 year, to total 5.00 million bags, driven local roaster capacity expansion, access to production, and strong marketing strategies in tandem with a young and developing middle income urban economic growth, to boost Vietnam’s domestic coffee consumption.

The USA will observe their Memorial Day holiday on Monday 25^th May, and the New York Arabica market will be closed accordingly, whilst the UK will celebrate their Spring Bank Holiday on the same day which shall see the London Robusta Market closed for the day.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 5,237 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 451,225 bags, with 73.07% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 329,707 and the remaining 26.93% being held in the USA at a total 121,518 bags. Of this, a total 11,510 or 2.55% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 28.07% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 126,680 bags and 13.67% from Peru at a total 61,682 bags. The pending grading stocks remained unchanged, registering 550 bags pending grading, the majority origin pending grading Honduras, adding up to 100% of the total.      

The July 2026 to July 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 119.22 Usc/Lb. This equates to 43.61% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, macroeconomic uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, volatile oil prices, a softer US Dollar, and shifting interest rate expectations continues to influence global commodity markets, with inflation concerns and tighter monetary policy likely to impact both consumer demand and pricing dynamics in general. The Coffee, Sugar, Gold, Palladium, Platinum and Silver markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.342 Sterling, at 1.161 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.005 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading on a modest softer note, while the New York market started the day trading to the north of par on a modest firmer note, carrying through some pressure from the close on Wednesday. The markets quickly found support near to the day’s modest lows, albeit in limited volume to start the day. The markets traded firmer to find support and trend in an upward direction. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers returned to the floor in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed.  The upward moment in New York in a market void of volume on the sell side, saw the market continue the upward momentum before being capped late in the day, to see the market settle on a firm note at the close with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.   The London market set a firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 86.59 % of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 85.00% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This firmer close for the markets, with the New York markets trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day, whilst the London market settled on a likewise firmer note with the speculative sector at the helm given the current geopolitical landscape and technical moves in play, the markets may be in for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: