Market Reports

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decreased their net long position by 31.27% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 12^th May 2026:  to register a new long position of 12,558 lots, which is the equivalent of 3,560,137 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 40,091 Lots or the equivalent of 11,365,621 bags net short position on the day, a decrease of 15.97% over the same week of trade.

In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market, the shorter term in Nature Managed Money Fund decreased their net-long position by 19.36% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 12^th May 2026; to register a new long position at 25,028 Lots. The longer term in nature, the Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net-long position by 3.81% within the market, to register a new net-long position of 28,129 Lots on the day.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market points to a more cautious market sentiment among speculative participants. The sharp 31.27% reduction in the Non-Commercial speculative net long position suggests that a significant portion of traders opted to reduce exposure following the recent period of softer trading sessions, reflecting growing uncertainty over near-term upside potential. Despite this liquidation, speculators remain net long overall. At the same time, the Commercial sector’s sizeable reduction in net short exposure may imply that industry participants are becoming less aggressively hedged, potentially signalling expectations of improved supply conditions. Meanwhile, longer-term Index Funds modestly trimmed their position. Overall, the positioning suggests a market transitioning from strong bullish stance toward a more balanced view, with participants closely monitoring fundamentals such as Brazilian crop development, weather patterns, and global demand trends for clearer directional signals.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 53.62% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 12^th May 2026: to register a new net long position of 13,709 Lots which is the equivalent of 2,284,833 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The analysts Safras & Mercado report that Brazilian coffee farmers have sold approximately 86% of the estimated 64.25 million bags from the current 2025/26 crop. This pace lags the same time last year, when around 96% of the crop had already been sold. It is likely that this year will be the first since 2022 that there may be adequate carryover stocks between the crop years, albeit in the Conilon robusta segment.  In a normal production and supply environment context, local carryover is considered comfortable if somewhere between two and three months of export and local demand.  Thus, applying this year’s average monthly export figure at around 3 million bags per month, while accounting for local consumption of approximately 1.80 million bags per month that is primarily robusta, would assume a surplus carry-over from their record Brazil Conilon production in 2025/26 and a relatively small arabica inventory and carryover, into the new crop year.  This remains evident in the extraordinarily high differentials for fine cup and bolder bean arabica coffees, evident as the tail end of the current export year draws near, and ahead of the new harvest that has started in lower lying districts.   Uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs with the U.S. may have contributed to the slower selling pace; although tariffs were lifted in late November 2025, export sales to the U.S. have resumed more gradually than in previous years.

Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 6% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 15^th May 2025.  The harvest this year is at a marginally slower pace, when compared to the same time last year, which was reported at 7%. Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, of which Arabica production is forecast at 49.95 million bags, which is forecast to possibly break the prior record of arabica production set in crop year 2020/21.   The report indicates that so far approximately 4.54 million bags of the new crop have been harvested, most of which will be Conilon robusta due to the earlier ripening of this coffee in the northeastern districts.

It is reported that Brazilian coffee farmers have sold approximately 16% of the estimated 75.65 million bags from the upcoming 2026/27 crop. The anticipated larger arabica harvest is expected to provide much-needed relief to the tight global supply pipeline following several consecutive years of lower crops. This increase is seen as essential to meet both domestic consumption and export demand. However, forward sales are reported at a slower when compared to last year, which likely reflects subdued internal market conditions, where well-financed producers continue to be price resistant, and buyers remain cautious in their forward purchasing strategies.

Within Brazil, weather conditions have been reported to be seasonally normal, with dry conditions experienced throughout most of the main arabica coffee growing regions during the first half of May, which would be considered normal for the time of year. Weather forecasters expect temperatures to begin to drop towards the end of the month as the southern hemisphere enters the traditionally cooler winter months.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease on Friday, to register these stocks at 466,405 bags, with 72.79% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 339,496 and the remaining 27.21% being held in the USA at a total 126,909 bags. Of this, a total 12,365 or 2.65% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 28.42% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 132,557 bags and 13.44% from Peru at a total 62,680 bags. The pending grading stocks remained unchanged on the day, registering 3,390 bags pending grading, the majority origin pending grading Mexico, adding up to 48.67% of the total.      

The July 2026 to July 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 114.27 Usc/Lb. This equates to 42.81% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a softer the commodity markets on Friday, on the back of a firmer US Dollar against a basket of other currencies which is traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies, while heightening inflation concerns reinforced bets for interest rate increases to come. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.335 Sterling, at 1.163 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.055 Brazil Real.

The London market opened trading to the south of par in modest near to unchanged softer territory on Friday, while the New York market started the day trading on a softer note from the outset. The markets quickly encountered sustained resistance to drop back into softer territory. Following the opening a sharply lower speculative selling track took hold in limited volume. The markets encountered an increased degree of selling pressure during the early afternoon session, with the arrival of the America’s reflecting increased volume and a continuation of speculative selling on the New York floor triggered stops along the way. The London market emulated the moves in New York and speculative long liquidation accentuated the negative moves in both markets, with a degree of influence from the firmer US Dollar on the day. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade; the New York market recovered marginally from the lows of the day, while the London market settled near to the lows for the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 93.13% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 86.70% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This follow through soft close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day, to set the tone for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday: