Market Reports

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 12% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees. This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 13.70% of the new crop. This means a total of 816,000 bags of the expected 6.80 million bags to be received by Cooxupe has been harvested so far. Cooxupe expects coffee exports to be 11.48% larger than the previous year, during this current season when compared to the last.

The weather forecasters are indicating favourable conditions for harvesting across the vast regions of the Brazil coffee growing areas for the remainder of this week, with temperatures expected to be somewhere in the lower twenties in degrees Celsius. The next full moon is due today, 29^th of July, historically this marks the most threatening time for cold weather risk in the Brazil coffee districts, if accompanied by any as yet unforeseen, cold front.  The Brazil Real has depreciated by 2.96% over the month of June and settled around the low for the year against the US Dollar, yesterday.  The Brazil Real weakness to the US Dollar can traditionally encourage increased selling activity within the interior of Brazil, as returns to producers are increased in Brazil Real terms, however, producers are relatively well financed and continue to take a measured stance, with the prevailing Brazil coffee harvest underway.

The mainstream northern hemisphere coffee consumer markets are entering their slower summer holiday season and privately held arabica inventory levels in consumer markets climbing back to a more comparatively comfortable level. Meanwhile, on the physical coffee side, Brazil, Indonesia, and Uganda will soon be ramping up their robusta coffee shipments, whilst new crop arabica coffee shipments from Peru continue to flow ahead of the new crop to come from Brazil which is currently in harvest.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange registered a decrease by 7,188 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 402,709 bags, with 72.54% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 292,124 and the remaining 27.46% being held in the USA at a total 110,585 bags. Of this, a total 10,740 or 2.67% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 28.79% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 115,921 bags and 15.25% from Peru at a total 61,407 bags. The pending grading increased by 1,100 bags on the day, registering 1,375 bags pending grading, with 100% from Honduras.

The July 2026 to July 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 95.98 Usc/Lb. This equates to 38.64% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, following news that US Consumer Price Index data gained 0.2% during May, following a 0.4% increase in April, cementing the speculative position that further interest rate hikes will come later in the year. A poll by Reuters indicates a 67% chance of an interest rate hike by December this year. The Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Sugar, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.338 Sterling, at 1.155 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.183 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day yesterday on a near to unchanged note, whilst the New York market opened the day trading to the north of par on firm footing from the outset. Both markets quickly made gains with support to trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed.  The upward moment in New York in a market lacking any selling action continued through to the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered a slight degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back and settle on a firm note, near to the highs of the day’s trading range.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 68.54% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 69.56% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day in a comparatively modest volume day, might see the markets set for a buoyant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: