Coffee Market Report
1st July, 2019.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within this market by 11.43%; over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 2518th. June; to register a new net short sold position of 35,576 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 10,085,638 bags has most likely been decreased again, following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed.
The leading robusta coffee producer in West Africa, Ivory Coast, has issued a provisional report that the countries coffee exports for the month of May registered a 38% decline on that of the same month last year, to reach a total 98,133 bags. Cumulative coffee exports for the first five months of the calendar year are reported at an overall increase and a total 489,883 bags, or 16% higher than that of the same time last year.
The September to September contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 43.63 usc/Lb., while this equates to 39.86% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 8,724 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,370,625 bags. The number of bags pending grading to the exchange were unchanged on the day; to register these pending grading stocks at 4,344 bags.
It was a mixed and overall softer day on the commodity markets on Friday, with the G20 summit meetings underway, direction reserved awaiting any indictors to come from the China/USA tariff and trade talks set to take place over the weekend. The US Dollar maintained a steady pace against a basket of other major currencies. It was a softer day on the Oil markets, Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Palladium markets and a positive close for Gold, Silver, Platinum, Orange Juice, Coffee and Soybean. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets, is 0.29% lower, to see this index registered at 397.92. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.266 to Sterling, at 1.131 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.85 Brazilian Real.
The London market opened the day on a positive note, followed by a positive opening in New York in fair to good volume at the offset. The last day of the trading week and month brought in a degree of book squaring activity and a continuation of the upward track in both markets as the day progressed. The prospects for a cold front that is forecast to bring about low temperatures to isolated areas in Brazil in the coming week and as the full moon approaches on 16th July, provided speculative support. The days’ high in New York tested early on in the session, where waiting sellers came in to cap the gains. The rest of the day maintained positive ground and New York settled into a steady and positive range for the rest of the day, in a narrow and relatively steady range, to set the close on the day near to the day high achieved. It was a similarly positive day for London albeit in comparatively thin volume. The positive track of the morning session in London held into the afternoon although selling activity toward the latter end of the day saw this market come under pressure, to give back some positive territory the last minutes of the day posting another recovery, and a close in London near to the day’s high. The markets finished on a buoyant note on Friday, in positive territory after a heavy volume day in New York and modest volume recorded in London, to set the close, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 1421 + 23 JUL 108.25 + 2.70
SEP 1451 + 21 SEP 109.45 + 2.75
NOV 1479 + 20 DEC 113.05 + 2.75
JAN 1503 + 20 MAR 116.60 + 2.75
MAR 1526 + 20 MAY 118.65 + 2.70
MAY 1549 + 19 JUL 120.50 + 2.70
JUL 1568 + 19 SEP 122.40 + 2.70
SEP 1587 + 19 DEC 125.30 + 2.85
NOV 1602 + 19 MAR 128.25 + 2.90
JAN 1617 + 19 MAY 130.30 + 2.95
