Coffee Market Report
| The National Export Centre in Nicaragua have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of September were 100,439 bags or 68.78% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 45,590 bags. This relatively modest performance has resulted in the countries cumulative coffee exports for the October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year to have been 3,882 bags or 0.22% lower than the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,766,161 bags.
With the new crop on the horizon however it is foreseen that there shall be a modest increase in production for Honduras for this crop, which should result in a likewise modest increase in exports for this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year. This positive forecast matching the expectations of neighbouring Costa Rica, whose new crop is expected to provide a modest increase over their previous crop. The latest weather forecasts are indicating that it is unlikely that the new cold front that is expected to impact south east Brazil shall impact before mid-next week, to bring with it much needed rains for the country’s main coffee districts. Albeit that there are some who forecast the chances of some scattered light showers to impact in south east Brazil, ahead of this cold front. In the meantime and following the good flowerings towards the new crop that impacted with the relatively good rains in September, the reports from the field are indicating that the past two weeks of mostly hot and dry weather in south east Brazil have not resulted in any significant damage to the setting of these flowers for the next crop. But there is no doubt that ahead of next week’s rains, that there shall be some reports of abortion of flowerings coming to the fore from individual farmers. Including the conilon robusta coffee farmers in Espirito Santo province, where water restrictions are already being implemented by several towns and cities. The second month arbitrage between the markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 64.31 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 46.69% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, but is perhaps due to widen further in time and when Vietnam stocks start to impact upon the fortunes of the London market. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 16,060 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,905,877 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in volume 9,405 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 74,380 bags. The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange were seen to increase by 23,333 bags on Monday 12th. October, with these stocks registered at 3,407,167 bags. The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, with the U.S. dollar relatively steady and with the macro commodity index nevertheless showing a degree of buoyancy. There is however concerns within many markets, that come with the repetitive reports of softening trade figures out of China, which are accompanied by relatively flat figures out of the Euro zone. The Oil, Cocoa, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets had a day of buoyancy and the Natural Gas and New York arabica coffee markets had steady day, while the Sugar, London robusta Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets tended softer of the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.39% higher to see this Index registered at 407.02. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.528 to Sterling and 1.139 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is near to steady in early trade and is selling at 48.25 per barrel. The London market started the day yesterday marginally below par and under some pressure form light origin price fixation pressure, while the New York market started the day with modest buoyancy. This positive start within the New York market did however come under pressure, but was countered in early afternoon trade by a further bout of short covering and gains of 2.60 usc/Lb. being posted. This positive stance within the New York market did seemingly have some influence within the London market, which had taken a downside track post the opening, but with the market having nevertheless remained below par. The New York market did however falter as the afternoon progressed and with the market shedding its gains and briefly dipping into negative territory, while the London market tended softer. The markets were however uncertain and both markets continued to take and erratic roller coaster track for the rest of the day and with the New York market mostly remaining within positive territory, while the London market remained below par for the day. The London market continued to end the day on a soft note and with 66.7% of the losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a near to steady note and having recovered 92.6% of the earlier losses of the day. This uncertain close is likely to bring with it a degree of caution and hesitancy for early trade today and one might not expect better than a near to steady start for the day against the prices set yesterday, as follows: LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. NOV 1610 – 13 DEC 134.35 – 0.15 |
