Coffee Market Report

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands Robusta coffee exports for the month of October were 148,911 bags or 59% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 400,783 bags.

This number indicates a relatively good start for the new October 2019 to September 2019 coffee year, following the relatively modest 2018 to 2019 coffee year, where the Sumatran Robusta coffee exports were 415,313 bags or 25.9% higher than the same period in the previous 2017 to 2018 coffee year, at a total of 2,017,605 bags. But there are still eleven months to the fore and the new Robusta crop due to start in the second quarter of next year, which might assist to buoy Sumatran Robusta coffee exports for the second half of the present coffee year.

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 41.99 usc/Lb. This equates to 41.17% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 900 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,241,857 bags, with 87.4% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,959,796 bags and the remaining 12.6% being held in the USA at a total of 282,061 bags. There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 4,400 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 11,143 bags.

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Coffee, Orange Juice, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Wheat and Corn markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.202 % lower; to see this index registered at 402.004. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.296 to Sterling, at 1.116 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.017 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on the firm side of par of par, both markets maintained this stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets gained support to trade in positive territory. The markets continued on this positive track until the close where both markets hit a ceiling a dropped back to settle near the highs of the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 86% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 89.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This positive close is likely to inspire some degree of confidence, to see the markets set for another hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

NOV 1293 + 31                                                            DEC 101.95 + 2.60
JAN 1322 + 31                                                             MAR 105.45 + 2.65
MAR 1338 + 29                                                            MAY 107.55 + 2.65
MAY 1353 + 26                                                            JUL 109.50 + 2.55
JUL 1375 + 27                                                              SEP 111.25 + 2.55
SEP 1399 + 27                                                              DEC 113.80 + 2.50
NOV 1423 + 26                                                            MAR 116.45 + 2.50
JAN 1447 + 26                                                              MAY 118.05 + 2.45
MAR 1472 + 25                                                            JUL 119.60 + 2.45