Coffee Market Report
| Reuters have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of November are up by 29% from the previous month, to total 1,881,517 bags. This number proving to be well below the 2 million bags that had been initially forecast for the month’s coffee exports.
These exports contributing to the country’s cumulative exports for the first eleven months of this year to be 15% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of approximately 24.5 million bags. While the report well illustrates the negative effects of the prevailing soft coffee terminal markets, in that the value of Vietnam coffee exports for the first eleven months of this year is 22.5% lower than the same period last year, at a total of approximately 2.52 billion US dollars. A shortage of high-quality coffees in top producers like Central America, Colombia and Brazil has prompted a scramble for ICE – certified stocks, which have fallen from 2.5 million bags in March to around 2.1 million bags in December. The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 70.47 usc/Lb. This equates to 52.12% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 29,773 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,032,414 bags, with 88.3% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,795,620 bags and the remaining 11.7% being held in the USA at a total of 236,794 bags. There was no change to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 34,400 bags. The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft sideways track for the day. The New York Arabica Coffee, Gold, Silver and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, London Robusta Coffee, Sugar and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.1122% lower; to see this index registered at 408.8874. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar showing some degree of buoyancy and steady, trading at 1.321 to Sterling, at 1.114 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.124 Brazilian Real. The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading in positive territory, both markets maintained this positive stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the London and New York markets started to attract buying support to move deeper into positive territory and accentuate the gains for the day, later in the day the London market started to attract selling pressure to move into negative territory for the close. The New York market continued on this upward trend for the remainder of the day’s trade only to hit a ceiling and drop back from the highs of the day. The London market ended the day on a softer note, and with 72.2% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on positive note, and with 53.52% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close albeit that the New York markets did hit a ceiling and come off its highs for the day, and with the Brazil Real marginally weaker might nevertheless inspire some degree of confidence, to possibly set the markets for another hesitant follow-through steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. JAN 1413 – 77 MAR 135.20 + 1.90
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