Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 34.44% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25th. August: to register a new net long position of 22,218 Lots which is the equivalent of 6,298,705 bags. This net long position has most likely been further increased, following the period of positive trade that has since followed.
With the month of August coming to a close and with the shipment statistics already at hand, the Vietnam General Statistics office have estimated that the coffee exports for the month of August shall be approximately 1,833,333 bags. This they say, shall result in the countries coffee exports for the first eight months of this year to be 1.3% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 19,333,333 bags.
The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time estimated that the value of the country’s coffee exports for the first eight months of this year, shall be 0.2% lower than the same period last year, at a total of approximately 1.98 billion US Dollars.
Today is a bank holiday in the United Kingdom, which shall see the London market closed for the day.
The November to December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday; to register this at 61.54 usc/Lb. This equates to 48.71% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 15,243 bags on Friday to register these stocks at 1,272,404 bags, with 94% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,196,633 bags and the remaining 6% being held in the USA at a total of 75,771 bags. There is meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 3,915 bags.
It was a marginally firmer day overall on the commodity markets on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a positive sideways track for the day. The Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar market ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.8834% higher; to see this index registered at 413.4553. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.334 to Sterling, at 1.190 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.388 Brazilian Real.
The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading on a modest positive note, both markets soon after started to attract a degree of buying support to see the markets set on a positive track. As the afternoon progressed both markets continued to trend positive. The New York market settled near to the highs of the day, while the London market attracted some degree of selling pressure late in the day to see the market drop back from the highs of the day to settle on a positive note.
The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 55.81% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note and with 93.02% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close might inspire some degree of confidence which is likely to set the New York market for a near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
SEP 1522 + 24 SEP 127.10 + 4.15
NOV 1429 + 24 DEC 126.35 + 4.00
JAN 1436 + 23 MAR 127.35 + 3.65
MAR 1448 + 22 MAY 128.45 + 3.65
MAY 1462 + 22 JUL 129.40 + 3.65
JUL 1475 + 22 SEP 130.00 + 3.60
SEP 1487 + 22 DEC 130.95 + 3.65
NOV 1501 + 23 MAR 131.95 + 3.65
